Analysis

TradingKey - Negotiations between US and Iranian delegations in Switzerland took an abrupt turn on Sunday. According to Iranian state media, after 80 minutes of talks, the Iranian delegation walked out of the venue due to "insulting remarks" by the US side. Meanwhile, Trump issued a warning, stating he "will once again launch very heavy strikes against Iran." Affected by this, Brent crude futures rose by as much as 1.5% after the opening of the Asian market on Monday, while WTI crude also gained over 1%. US stock index futures fell across the board, with S&P 500 futures down 0.72% and Nasdaq 100 futures dropping over 1%.

TradingKey - On Wednesday Eastern Time, US media outlet Axios, citing two US officials, reported that the United States and Iran have remotely signed a memorandum of understanding aimed at ending the war and opening the Strait of Hormuz, with the agreement now in effect.

TradingKey - As the signing ceremony for the US-Iran ceasefire agreement on June 19 approaches, Bloomberg News and Iran's Mehr News Agency have successively disclosed the full text of the draft 14-point memorandum of understanding (MoU) between the US and Iran. This framework agreement, known as the "Islamabad Memorandum," aims to permanently end the conflict between the two sides that erupted in February 2026 and pave the way for negotiations on a final agreement lasting up to 60 days.

TradingKey - Despite Trump’s statement on the 14th that a U.S.-Iran agreement will be signed this Friday (June 19) followed by the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the market remains highly skeptical. Data from the prediction market Polymarket indicates only a 23% probability that operations in th

TradingKey - U.S. President Trump announced on his social media platform on Saturday that the agreement will be officially signed on Sunday. Once signed, the Strait of Hormuz, which has been blocked for three and a half months, will immediately resume free navigation.

TradingKey - According to multiple sources, the U.S.-Iran peace agreement has entered its final sprint. Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif stated on the social media platform X on Friday that both sides have reached an agreement on the text of a final peace deal, noting that "peace has never been closer than it is today."

TradingKey - On May 23 ET, Donald Trump claimed on social media that negotiations for a U.S.-Iran agreement are "essentially complete" and will be announced "soon," with the deal including the opening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Freshly-minted Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Kevin Warsh delivered his first public speech as head of the Fed on Friday, delivering his key talking points after being sworn in.

Speaking ahead of the swearing-in of new Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Kevin Warsh, President Trump stated that he wants Warsh to be "independent", stating that the Fed will "make their own decisions".

TradingKey - Latest reports indicate that an Iranian diplomatic source stated preparations for negotiations between Iran and the U.S. in Pakistan could reach a breakthrough "tonight or tomorrow." Meanwhile, the U.S. military announced it has boarded a tanker suspected of smuggling Iranian oil. As th

TradingKey - On April 17, Eastern Time, Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi announced that the Strait of Hormuz would be "open to all commercial vessels during the Lebanon-Israel ceasefire." International oil prices plunged more than 10% in a single day, with WTI crude oil futures dropping to $84/barr

TradingKey - On April 17, Trump declared on social media that the situation in the Strait of Hormuz has concluded, claiming that Iran has agreed to most conditions, including the full reopening of the strait, a commitment to abandon high-enriched uranium stockpiles, and the cessation of support for

TradingKey - Following the failure of US-Iran peace talks, US President Trump announced on Sunday that the US Navy will immediately blockade the Strait of Hormuz and prevent any vessels that have paid transit fees to Iran from navigating in international waters. Why is Trump blockading the strait de

TradingKey — Following five weeks of military conflict, the U.S. and Iran are scheduled to formally launch their first round of direct talks on the morning of April 11, local time, in Islamabad, Pakistan. This marks the third set of negotiations between the two nations within a year. During the previous two negotiation processes, sudden military actions were launched by the U.S. and Israel against Iran.

TradingKey - Iran’s Supreme National Security Council issued a statement on the 8th disclosing the key contents of 10 ceasefire terms submitted to the United States via Pakistan. Iranian media subsequently released all 10 terms, though the reports were not entirely consistent.

TradingKey - According to a Reuters report citing Japanese government sources, the Japanese government's fuel subsidies cost approximately 600 billion yen per month, and funds are expected to be depleted within three months at most. Although Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has repeatedly soug

TradingKey - Goldman Sachs recently raised the probability of a U.S. recession over the next 12 months to 30%. While this adjustment may appear to be a mere numerical change, within the current macroeconomic context, it signals a shift in sentiment—market confidence in a "soft landing" for the U.S.

TradingKey - As the US-Israel-Iran conflict enters its second week, new developments have emerged in the situation. On March 9 local time, U.S. President Trump sent a clear signal during a press conference, stating that military operations against Iran would end "soon" but would not be completed within this week. This statement has been interpreted by observers as a direct signal that the U.S. is seeking a "graceful exit." In response to the de-escalatory signals from the U.S., Iran’s stance remains defiant.

TradingKey - The Middle East conflict has entered its 11th day since the United States and Israel launched strikes against Iran on February 28, 2026, local time. Although the situation has not yet significantly eased, both the Trump administration and Iran have recently signaled a potential opening for a ceasefire.

TradingKey - As tensions in the Middle East continue to escalate, uncertainty surrounding global energy supplies is rapidly intensifying. According to media reports, the Japanese government has issued a preparation directive to the national petroleum reserve base in Shibushi, Kagoshima, instructing relevant agencies to finalize technical and logistical preparations for a crude oil release. This marks one of the clearest signals from Japanese officials to date regarding the release of strategic reserves.