Analysis

TradingKey — As the U.S.-Iran war continues, the "NACHO" trade has become the most prevalent play on Wall Street. NACHO, which stands for "Not A Chance Hormuz Opens," signifies the belief that the Strait of Hormuz will not reopen. Market analysis indicates that growing skepticism over a near-term en

TradingKey - On May 8 (ET), Citi stated that oil prices could rise further if US-Iran negotiations remain deadlocked, maintaining its forecast that Brent crude will reach $120 over the next three months.

Silver (XAG/USD) attracts fresh buyers following an Asian session dip to sub-$78.00 levels and stalls the previous day's late pullback from a nearly three-week high. The white metal climbs back above the $80.00 psychological mark in the last hour and remains on track to register strong weekly gains.

Trump says ceasefire still in effect, Iran says situation is back to normalU.S. non-farm payrolls report for April due later todayBullion up over 2% so far this weekBy Noel John May 8 (Reuters) - Gold rose on Friday and was headed for a weekly gain on easing fears of inflation and higher interest

TradingKey - Oil prices surge as US-Iran clashes resume following a brief de-escalation.

TradingKey - After retesting the $4,500 level this Monday, gold prices (XAUUSD) staged a strong recovery of over $200 across Tuesday and Wednesday, breaking above the $4,700 mark. As of press time today (May 7), the gold price maintains its upward momentum, trading at $4,748.77. The $4,800 threshold

TradingKey - WTI crude oil futures settled at $96.21 per barrel on May 6, plummeting 6.3%. This marked the first close below the $100 level in six days and the largest single-day decline since March 17. Brent crude oil futures fell over 7.73% on the same day, intraday breaking below the $100 mark for the first time since April 22.

TradingKey - According to the latest data from GasBuddy, the U.S. national average gasoline price has risen above $4.50 per gallon, its highest level since mid-July 2022. However, recent reports indicate positive signals in peace talks between the U.S. and Iran. Iran stated on Wednesday that it is reviewing a peace proposal submitted by the U.S. Sources familiar with the matter revealed that the proposal would formally end the current conflict. Driven by expectations of an agreement to end the hostilities, the geopolitical risk premium rapidly dissipated. The international crude oil market experienced severe volatility, with Brent crude’s intraday decline reaching as much as 11.2%, while WTI crude also recorded a drop of over 11%. The losses subsequently narrowed, with Brent crude closing at $101.27, down 7.8%, and WTI crude closing at $95.08, down over 7%.

Silver price (XAG/USD) rises for the second successive day, trading around $77.90 per troy ounce during the Asian hours on Thursday.

TradingKey - During pre-market trading on May 5, international crude oil losses widened. WTI crude oil futures briefly fell below $90, hitting a low of $88.71 for the first time since April 21, with losses reaching as much as 13.2%. Brent crude plummeted as much as 12%, hitting a low of $96.77.

TradingKey - During Wednesday's trading session, spot gold reclaimed the $4,700 psychological level, with intraday gains extending to 3.19%. This followed significant signals from the U.S. that a ceasefire agreement with Iran is nearing completion, causing market safe-haven sentiment to cool. As the U.S. dollar weakened under pressure, gold and other precious metal assets staged a strong rebound.

TradingKey - International oil prices experienced another massive sell-off during Wednesday's Asian trading session. This followed reports citing U.S. and Iranian officials that both sides are close to reaching a one-page memorandum to end the war.

Silver price (XAG/USD) rises after two days of losses, trading around $75.20 per troy ounce during the Asian hours on Wednesday.

Gold prices rose more than 1% on Wednesday, buoyed by a weaker dollar, while softer oil prices eased fears of inflation and higher-for-longer interest rates, amid hopes of a U.S.-Iran peace deal.

TradingKey - On the evening of May 5, ET, Trump posted that the "freedom plan" to unblock the Strait of Hormuz is being temporarily suspended to create space for negotiations with Iran, though the blockade of Iranian ports will continue. Concurrently, U.S. Secretary of State Rubio told reporters that the U.S. "Epic Fury" operation against Iran has concluded.

TradingKey - Despite the continued delay in reaching an agreement between the U.S. and Iran, the ceasefire currently remains in place. Against this backdrop, market expectations for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz have turned optimistic. Prediction market Polymarket shows a 50% probability that normal navigation will resume by the end of June. However, from a professional perspective, the reality may not be as optimistic.

TradingKey - Since April, the precious metals market has continued the weakness seen in March. Spot gold recorded a cumulative decline of nearly 2% in April, while spot silver briefly fell below the $70 mark.

TradingKey - As the U.S.-Iran war enters its ninth week, Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio is urging investors to increase their gold holdings, recommending an allocation of 5% to 15% of their portfolios as global uncertainty has risen significantly. Since the outbreak of the conflict, spot gold prices have fallen by more than 10%. Compared to a nearly 70% gain for the full year last year, gold has risen only 5% year-to-date. Why, against this backdrop, does Dalio remain bullish on gold's performance?

TradingKey - During Tuesday's European trading session, international crude oil prices retreated significantly, with Brent crude futures extending intraday losses to 3.0%, trading at $107.11 per barrel. WTI crude futures also fell 3.0% to $103.57 per barrel. The geopolitical premium previously accumulated due to Middle East tensions saw a clear retracement, as energy market volatility continues to intensify.

Japan's government bond yield curve steepened on Thursday, with the benchmark 10-year yield hitting a 29-year high, as reports of U.S. military action to end the Iran stalemate drove oil to a four-year high and fuelled inflation concerns.