Analysis

TradingKey - With the US and Iran announcing a memorandum of understanding, the two major crude oil futures fell further, nearing levels seen before the US-Iran conflict. Market focus has shifted to vessel transit through the Strait of Hormuz following the signing of the agreement. A US-led naval coalition issued an advisory to shipping companies stating that the threat level for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz has been downgraded, though shippers should still remain vigilant against the risk of attacks. As of press time, both crude oil benchmarks were under pressure, with WTI crude futures down about 4% at $72.99 and Brent crude futures down 3.54% at $76.73.

TradingKey - During the Asian session today (June 18), gold prices (XAU/USD) maintained an intraday rebound, boosted by positive news regarding the potential early signing of a US-Iran agreement. This recovered most of the losses from Wednesday's plunge triggered by the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, with intraday prices rebounding from Wednesday's low of $4,219 to $4,329.9 at one point. On the technical front, $4,360 represents a key near-term resistance for bulls; only a breakthrough above this level can open up further upside for gold prices.

TradingKey - The two major crude oil benchmarks spiked in short-term trading after US President Trump stated that military strikes against Iran could resume. According to media reports, Trump said on Wednesday that the current memorandum of understanding reached with Iran is not a final agreement, and the US may resume military strikes against Iran if he is dissatisfied with the progress of the agreement.

TradingKey - On Tuesday, August Brent crude futures settled down over 5% at $78.96 per barrel, falling below the $80 mark for the first time in three months. Brent has now fallen for four consecutive trading sessions, marking its longest losing streak of the year and almost entirely erasing all gain

TradingKey - On June 16, following consecutive signals of geopolitical de-escalation from US President Donald Trump, the two major crude oil benchmarks extended their recent losses, nearing the price levels seen prior to the US-Iran conflict. Regarding statements from both sides, Trump stated that the Strait of Hormuz will fully reopen this Friday. He noted that US-Iran relations have "normalized," the US will further drive down oil prices, and threatened to increase sanctions on Russia, citing improved oil supply. He emphasized that the US and Iran have successfully signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) online, and negotiations for the US-Iran agreement have now entered the second phase, adding that "this should be easier than the first phase."

TradingKey - Since 2026, gold has erased nearly all of its gains, falling more than 20% from its record high of $5,595 set at the end of January. Has gold bottomed out? Is now the time to increase gold holdings? On June 15, both Barclays and Citi expressed bullish outlooks. Citi raised its 3-month gold target price to $4,500, after lowering it to $4,000 in early June, while maintaining its 6-to-12-month bullish forecast of $5,000 per ounce. Barclays, meanwhile, believes this decline is a price reset rather than the end of the bull market.

TradingKey - As of the European session today (June 16), the crude oil market continued to weaken amid expectations of an impending preliminary US-Iran agreement. The market may have begun trading the supply recovery logic, increasing downward pressure on oil prices. As of press time, WTI crude (USOIL) fell 1.63% to $79.85, while Brent crude dropped 1.32% to $82.25.

Tradingkey - On June 15, both major crude oil futures benchmarks came under pressure following a preliminary ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran, which raised expectations for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. As of publication, Brent crude futures fell 5.29% to $82.71, while WTI crude futures dropped 5.43% to $78.82, hitting their lowest levels since March. Notably, free passage through the Strait of Hormuz is not permanent. According to Fars News Agency, citing sources familiar with the matter, the interim agreement provides for only a 60-day free passage period. After the period expires, Iran will levy fees on passing merchant vessels covering security, navigation services, environmental protection, and insurance.

TradingKey - As of today’s European session (June 15), the crude oil market plummeted intraday, driven by reports that a peace agreement in US-Iran negotiations is nearing signature. WTI (USOIL) crude briefly fell below the $80 mark, dropping over 5%, while Brent crude's decline once exceeded 4%.

TradingKey - As of the Asian session today (June 15), gold prices (XAUUSD) gapped higher and rose over 2% intraday, driven by significant progress in U.S.-Iran negotiations. Gold has rebounded for three consecutive trading days, with the cumulative rally exceeding $300. However, it should be noted that gold faces resistance at $4,360, which may limit short-term upside potential.

TradingKey - Year-to-date, international gold prices have fallen by more than 23% from an all-time high of $5,598.75 per ounce, completely wiping out all gains for the year. Since peaking at the end of January, gold prices have closed lower for four consecutive months.

TradingKey - As of the Asian session on June 12, gold (XAUUSD) prices fluctuated and weakened near $4,180. Yesterday, gold prices briefly dipped to near $4,000 before rebounding sharply above $4,200, driven by the impending signing of a US-Iran agreement. However, with the decline for June still reaching approximately 8%, the market continues to exhibit a bearish bias.

TradingKey - Geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran have cooled abruptly. Donald Trump recently stated on social media that Iran's top leadership has approved a draft multilateral consensus agreement. Consequently, both major crude oil futures plummeted in the short term. As of press time, WTI crude futures fell over 4% to $86.20, while Brent crude futures also dropped more than 4% to $88.66.

TradingKey - On June 11, Eastern Time, driven by strong CPI data and the situation in the Middle East, gold prices (XAUUSD) dipped toward the $4,000 mark intraday, hitting a low of $4,023.76. As of today's Asian session, gold prices are fluctuating near $4,100, up 0.79% on the day.

TradingKey - During the Asian session on Thursday, spot gold fell below $4,100, hitting a low of $4,023, marking its lowest level since November 2025. Gold futures dropped to as low as $4,046 during the session. Compared to the all-time high of nearly $5,600 reached in late January, spot gold prices have declined by more than 26% cumulatively, erasing all year-to-date gains. On the macro front, U.S. May CPI data released Wednesday rose 4.2% year-on-year, the largest increase since April 2023. Although May core CPI grew by only 0.2% month-on-month—below market expectations—options market data indicates that traders maintain expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes this year. Spot gold closed down more than 4% on Wednesday.

TradingKey - On June 10 (ET), spot gold intraday breached the $4,100 mark and neared the $4,000 psychological barrier following four consecutive sessions of selling. This decline marks the sharpest retracement since 2023.

TradingKey - The US-Iran conflict continues to escalate, driving a sharp surge in crude oil prices. On Wednesday, both Brent and WTI crude futures closed higher, surpassing $90 per barrel. During intraday trading on Thursday, oil prices rose further, with WTI futures gaining over 2% to break above $92, while Brent crude increased by 0.5% to stand above $95.

TradingKey - As of the European session today (June 10), silver continued its weak downward trend, hitting an intraday low of $63.44. Technical indicators suggest that silver prices may see further downside in the short term. Driven by strong U.S. non-farm payroll data and the conflict between Iran

TradingKey - A classic indicator the Bond King says has stopped working may be the missing key to this gold boom and the repricing of money itself.

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