Analysis

TradingKey - On Wednesday (May 13), the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released PPI data. The April PPI year-on-year growth hit its highest level since December 2022, while the month-on-month growth reached a new high since March 2022.

TradingKey - The U.S. is set to release April PPI data at 8:30 AM ET on May 13. Markets widely expect the U.S. April PPI to continue its upward trend, with the consensus pointing to a year-on-year growth rate of 4.9%, up from 4.0% in March. If realized, concerns regarding the upstream transmission of inflationary pressures will further intensify.

Tradingkey - At 8:30 AM ET on May 12, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the April CPI report, a critical window for verifying the transmission of oil prices to inflation. Data indicated that U.S. inflation ran hot in April, with the year-on-year increase reaching 3.8%, the highest in near

TradingKey - On Tuesday, May 12 (ET), the U.S. Department of Labor released Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. The April CPI rose 3.8% year-on-year, exceeding the 3.7% forecast and significantly higher than the previous month's 3.3%, marking the fastest annual growth since May 2023. Core CPI rose 2.8% year-on-year, surpassing both the 2.7% forecast and the previous 2.6%, highlighting an unexpected rebound in inflation.

TradingKey - On May 12, the Summary of Opinions from the Bank of Japan's April meeting, released on Monday, sent a clear tightening signal. However, the foreign exchange market delivered a contrary response; despite intensifying expectations for interest rate hikes, the yen weakened.

TradingKey - March 2026 CPI numbers came in very strong, delivering a hefty inflation blow in the aftermath of the US-Iran conflict. The headline measure shot up to +3.3% year-over-year – the best since May 2024 – on an energy shock that pushed gasoline prices up 18.9% YoY. Month-over-month, headlin

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics is set to release the April CPI report. Top investment banks now widely believe that the Federal Reserve's first rate cut will be delayed until 2027, with no cuts expected in 2026. JPMorgan Chase has developed three scenarios based on the CPI data—even in an optim

TradingKey - Last Friday, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee publicly questioned the Trump administration’s logic for interest rate cuts, arguing that widespread expectations for AI productivity could itself drive interest rates higher. However, if this technological revolution disappoints, it co

Wall Street faces a tug-of-war between strong AI-driven earnings and rising macro risks. While tech stocks remain resilient, persistent inflation (3.3%) and Middle East tensions are fueling volatility. All eyes turn to upcoming CPI data to determine if the Fed will maintain its hawkish stance throug

TradingKey - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the April CPI report on May 12 at 8:30 a.m. ET. Since the outbreak of the U.S.-Iran conflict in late February, the global energy market has experienced the most severe geopolitical supply shock in history. As the conflict enters its third month, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains significantly below pre-war levels, with approximately 20% of the world's oil transit routes still facing "interruption." This inflation report will serve as a critical validation window for the transmission effects of oil prices.

TradingKey - On May 8 at 8:30 AM ET, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the April Non-farm Payrolls report. This marks the first time in nearly a year that non-farm payrolls have recorded growth for two consecutive months, further supporting the Federal Reserve's stance to maintain interest rates and shifting market focus toward inflation data. Specifically, U.S. April seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls increased by 115,000, exceeding the expected 62,000, while the previous figure was revised from 178,000 to 185,000.

TradingKey - On May 8, ET, April non-farm payroll data showed that 115,000 jobs were added during the month. Although this represents a sharp decline from the 178,000 increase in March, it exceeded market expectations of 65,000. The unemployment rate remained at 4.3%. Additionally, total non-farm pa

TradingKey - April 2026 NFP forecast 62K–70K vs March 178K. Unemployment expected 4.3%. Fed on hold at 3.50–3.75% with Kevin Warsh as new chair. DXY triple-bottom at $97.69. Trade setup inside.

TradingKey - Against the backdrop of the situation in Iran pushing up oil prices and amplifying economic uncertainty, U.S. stocks have remained strong, appearing largely unaffected by oil price volatility. Meanwhile, the U.S. Treasury market has experienced turbulence, marking a clear divergence between equity and bond performances.

TradingKey - Fresh ADP data released this Wednesday (May 6) showed that the U.S. private sector added 109,000 jobs in April, marking the largest increase in 15 months. This figure not only exceeded the 99,000 expected by economists in a Reuters poll but also accelerated significantly from a downward

At 8:30 AM ET on May 8, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the April non-farm payroll data. Against the backdrop of geopolitical tensions driving up inflation, the non-farm payroll report will serve as a key bellwether for the labor market and influence the trajectory of the Fede

TradingKey - After eight years at the helm of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell’s term as Chair will officially conclude on May 15. Kevin Warsh, nominated by President Trump, is highly likely to take over following Senate confirmation. As early as last December, Powell publicly expressed his expectations for his departure: “I truly hope to hand over a well-positioned U.S. economy to my successor—one where inflation is returning to the 2% target in a controlled manner, while the labor market remains resilient.”

TradingKey - At 7:00 AM ET on May 1, the Bank of England voted 8-1 to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 3.75%, in line with market expectations. Beneath the calm surface of this decision lies the most complex policy divergence since 2022—the central bank has for the first time abandoned a single "central forecast" in favor of three scenarios to project inflation paths; more than half of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) members hinted at potentially joining the rate hike camp in the coming months.

TradingKey - The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, and coupled with Powell's cautious remarks, the US dollar remained supported and continued to rise. US stocks may face pressure, while gold (XAUUSD) came under short-term pressure, briefly dipping to $4518.73. However, it failed to break below the $4500 mark, indicating that market selling pressure has been absorbed.

TradingKey — On April 28, the Bank of Japan concluded its two-day monetary policy meeting, announcing that it would maintain its short-term interest rate target unchanged at 0.75%. During the subsequent press conference, Governor Kazuo Ueda signaled a clear hawkish stance, emphasizing that the central bank will continue to advance the interest rate hike process based on economic conditions.