Analysis

TradingKey - At this point in time, the stock market is obsessing over how much the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates in 2025.

TradingKey - Entering 2025, the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note has continued its upward trajectory. Following the release of two critical economic data points on Tuesday, long-term Treasury yields climbed further. In contrast, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index fell 1.9%, and the S&P 500

New York Federal Reserve Bank (Fed) President John Williams said that he “sees inflation cooling and interest rates falling further.”

Four Chinese government advisers advocated for a 2025 growth target of around 5%, similar to this year, Reuters reported on Thursday.  

The UK’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased at an annual rate of 2.3% in October after rising by 1.7% in September, according to data released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on Wednesday. The October’s rise exceeds the 2.2% forecasted by economists surveyed by Reuters.

TradingKey – This week, the U.S. will release October CPI data, with inflation expected to face challenges in easing further.

China’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose at an annual pace of 0.3% in October after reporting a 0.4% growth in September.

This week is packed with major economic events that will undoubtedly influence global markets. Oil, retail, housing, and manufacturing data are all on deck, with many companies reporting earnings and 11 Federal Reserve officials giving speeches.

TOKYO (Reuters) - Japan's core consumer inflation rate likely eased in September as energy costs eased due to government subsidies, while export growth slowed sharply, a Reuters poll showed on Friday.

LONDON (Reuters) -Britain's economy grew in August after two consecutive months of stagnation, providing some relief to finance minister Rachel Reeves ahead of the new Labour government's first budget later this month.

BEIJING (Reuters) - China's exports are likely to have risen at the slowest pace in five months in September, suggesting manufacturers are no longer rushing out orders ahead of tariffs from several trade partners and that global demand for Chinese goods is softening.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell participates on Monday in a moderated discussion titled "A View from the Federal Reserve Board" at the National Association for Business Economics Annual Meeting in Nashville, starting at 17:00 GMT.

TradingKey – The September non-farm payroll report will be the central focus this week, as it plays a critical role in shaping market expectations amid the ongoing influence of the Federal Reserve's easing cycle.

China's Caixin Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) contracted to 49.3 in September after reporting 50.4 in August, the latest data showed on Monday.

The United States Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) is set to release the significant Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, on Friday at 12:30 GMT.

SEOUL (Reuters) - South Korea's exports are expected to have risen for a 12th straight month in September, but with the growth momentum slowing further, a Reuters poll showed on Friday.

TradingKey - This week, financial markets will be closely watching key data releases, with the U.S. August PCE Price Index—considered the Fed's preferred inflation indicator—taking center stage.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell explains the decision to cut the policy rate, federal funds rate, by 50 basis points to the range of 4.75%-5% after the September meeting and responds to questions in the post-meeting press conference.

US Nonfarm Payrolls are forecast to rise 160K in August after gaining merely by 114K in July.

Investing.com -- A prospect of a larger 50 basis point rate cut at the Federal Reserve's meeting later this month was given a big boost on Wednesday, Citi said, as the bigger-than-expected drop in job openings showed the labor market is at risk of a sharper weakening.