EUR/HUF

Geoff Yu at BNY Mellon argues that Hungary has become a positive fiscal outlier in CEE, front‑loading consolidation to pursue Eurozone entry by 2030.

ING’s Frantisek Taborsky reports Hungary’s new fiscal path projects the deficit falling to 2.8% by 2030, aligned with Euro adoption plans, while the National Bank of Hungary keeps rates at 5.50% and stresses caution amid global uncertainties. EUR/HUF trades in a tight 362–364 range, with positioning corrections and future direction seen hinging on global developments and energy prices.

BNY Mellon’s Geoff Yu notes that Central and Eastern European (CEE) assets have underperformed in October, with CE3 FX (Polish Zloty, Czech Koruna and Hungarian Forint) carry versus EUR and USD lagging cash returns and reflecting markets’ belief that CEE central banks cannot match European Central B

Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose reports that the MNB kept its base rate at 5.50% and maintained the overnight corridor, but seasonally-adjusted inflation suggests real rates may soon turn negative.

ING’s Frantisek Taborsky reports Hungary’s government has outlined a 2025 budget deficit target of 4.9% of GDP, down from 7.0–7.5%, relying on spending cuts, lower interest costs and new taxes.

Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose expects the MNB to keep its base rate at 5.50% and argues that Hungary’s recovering real economy and re‑accelerating seasonally adjusted inflation momentum do not justify easing.