Valuation Pressures and Political Cycles Intertwined: Is the Trump-Era US Stock Bull Market Really Ending?
TradingKey - From the perspective of market performance, Donald Trump's administrative cycles have consistently been accompanied by strong rallies in U.S. equities. During his first term from January 2017 to January 2021, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the S&P 500, and the Nasdaq Composite recorded cumulative gains of 57%, 70%, and 142%, respectively. Since the start of his second term in January 2025, the three major indices have collectively posted gains of 14%-15%. While there is no definitive answer as to whether U.S. stocks will face a crash in 2026, historical data and current signals provide a reference perspective for investors.