Market Week Ahead: February PCE Inflation Data and Q4 GDP, Spotlight on Apple Event 

TradingKey - Last week, the Federal Reserve's dovish stance helped the US stock market, resulting in a rebound that prevented both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq composite indexes from facing a fifth consecutive weekly decline. 

This week, the focus turns to the release of the Fed's preferred inflation measure, the February PCE price index, with expectations for a 2.5% year-on-year increase. The core PCE is projected to rise from 2.6% to 2.7%. Moreover, US real GDP in Q4 2024 will be unveiled. 

Apple is set to hold a developer event in Shanghai on March 25, titled "Exploring Apple Intelligence and Machine Learning," which is expected to attract significant developer interest and potentially impact its stock price. Intuitive Machines (LUNR.US) is scheduled to report earnings on Monday, with Oklo Inc (OKLO.US), a nuclear energy stock, also drawing attention.

February PCE Index 

The February PCE price index, a critical inflation indicator for the Fed, will be released on Friday (28th). Market estimates suggest that the year-on-year increase will remain at 2.5%, while the core PCE is expected to bounce back from 2.6% to 2.7%.

According to CME data, there is a consensus that the Fed may resume interest rate cuts in the near future, with expectations of a reduction ranging from 50 to 75 basis points this year. Following the PCE report, the University of Michigan will issue the final report of the March Consumer Sentiment Index, reflecting consumer expectations for inflation over the next year and the next five to ten years.

Q4 GDP Data Release

On Thursday (27th), the US will release the final value of the Q4 GDP growth rate, with a predicted confirmation of 2.4%, slightly up from the initial estimate of 2.3%. 

Last week, the FOMC revised its US real GDP growth forecast for 2025 down from 2.1% to 1.7%, while raising the core PCE forecast from 2.5% to 2.8%, acknowledging the stagflation risks facing the US economy. Despite increasing risks, moderate committee members still anticipate two interest rate cuts by the Fed in 2025, slightly lower than market expectations.

Apple Developer Event in Shanghai

Apple will host its "Exploring Apple Intelligence and Machine Learning" developer event on March 25 in Shanghai. This online session will allow developers to explore the latest developments in Apple intelligence and machine learning, learn to optimize user interaction with apps via Siri and App Intents, and gain insights into advanced workflows for building intelligent features using machine learning APIs, with a Q&A session featuring Apple experts.

The event has generated significant developer interest and sparked speculation about the upcoming launch of Apple's intelligence features in China.

China Development Forum 2025

The China Development Forum 2025 is scheduled to take place in Beijing from March 23 to 24, under the theme "Unleashing Development Potential for Stable Global Economic Growth." 

Key foreign representatives attending include Siemens AG Chairman and CEO Roland Busch, Apple CEO Tim Cook, Samsung Electronics Chairman Lee Jae-Yong, BMW Chairman Oliver Zipse, Daimler AG Chairman Ola Källenius, and Qualcomm CEO Cristiano Amon.

Key Economic Data This Week

Wednesday: US February Durable Goods Orders

Thursday: Final Q4 US GDP Annualized Growth Rate

Friday: US February Core PCE Price Index

Key Events This Week

Monday: China Development Forum 2025 from March 23 to 24 in Beijing.

Wednesday: FOMC permanent voting member and New York Fed President John Williams to deliver opening remarks at an event.

Friday: Bank of Japan to publish minutes from the March monetary policy meeting.

Upcoming Earnings

Monday: BYD Company (01211.HK), Sunny Optical Technology (02382.HK)

Wednesday: Kuaishou (01024.HK), China Merchants Bank (03968.HK)

Thursday: Zhihu (ZH.N)

Friday: Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (01398.HK), China Petroleum & Chemical Corp (00857.HK)