【Reuters Breakingviews】India’s banks will struggle to keep equities crown
The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are her own.
By Shritama Bose
MUMBAI, Feb 19 (Reuters Breakingviews) - India’s dealmakers are celebrating their arrival on the global map. Last year, Kotak Mahindra Bank KTKM.NS not only topped LSEG's league table for initial public offerings in Asia by volume, edging out CITIC 0267.HK and JPMorgan JPM.N, but it also broke into the ranks of the top 10 underwriters of common stock deals globally by proceeds. Both are firsts for an Indian investment bank. But the strong showing by the $45 billion firm and its compatriots may prove hard to sustain.
A record $71 billion in equity fundraising powered the South Asian country's climb past China and Hong Kong to the spot of the world’s second-largest destination for share placements behind the U.S. last year, per Dealogic data. New-economy companies including Swiggy SWIG.NS and Ola Electric Mobility OLAE.NS going public were a lynchpin for strong fees. Meanwhile, punchy valuations prompted global businesses like Whirlpool WHR.N to cash out stakes in their local units and Hyundai Motor 005380.KS to take its Indian business public.
It spelt a bonanza for banks like Kotak and ICICI Bank ICBK.NS, both of which trade at 3 times forward book value, the top of their peer group. Their rise up the league tables buys them credibility beyond those rich valuations.
The mood is upbeat. At a Mumbai conference of investment banks in January, a singer belted out chest-thumping patriotic numbers in the presence of Madhabi Puri Buch, chief of Securities and Exchange Board of India, the capital markets regulator. Sundararaman Ramamurthy, the CEO of BSE BSEL.NS, one of the country’s two main stock exchanges, described the IPO boom as a moment of India’s “re-emergence” on the world stage.
The pipeline remains strong. Kotak has won a mandate, alongside Morgan Stanley MS.N, for what could be India's largest ever IPO, an up to $4.6 billion listing of Reliance Industries' RELI.NS telecommunications business, IFR reported in January, citing unnamed people. HDFC Bank’s HDBK.NS shadow lending unit has filed for a $1.44 billion float. Businesses ranging from the local unit of South Korean consumer appliances giant LG Electronics 066570.KS to Tiger Global-backed stockbroker Groww are preparing for billion-dollar listings too, per IFR. Kotak expects primary fundraising in India to rise 59% from last year’s level to $35 billion in 2025.
But the broader environment is less cheery. Foreign portfolio investors are dumping Indian shares and companies are reporting dismal earnings, pulling indexes off last year’s dizzying highs. The outlook for GDP growth is sombre. Beijing's push for higher-valued startups could rejuvenate dealmaking in China this year, and Hong Kong listings are rebounding from a 20-year low. The two centres notched up a total $132 billion in equity transactions in 2023 before markets slumped.
Kotak and its peers may find their dealmaking crown was easier to earn than to hold.
CONTEXT NEWS
Kotak Mahindra Bank was the 10th largest bookrunner globally for common stock deals by proceeds in 2024, with a 1.5% share of the market, according to LSEG data. It also topped the league table for Asian initial public offerings, including Chinese A-shares, facilitating listings that raised $2 billion during the year.
