[Reuters Analysis] Donald Trump’s boomerang will hit the US hard

LONDON, March 24 (Reuters Breakingviews) - When you throw a boomerang, you must be careful that it does not swoop back and hit you. Donald Trump risks such ricochet by bullying his allies.

Just two months into the president’s second term, once-friendly countries no longer want to depend on the wayward superpower. It is not just that governments cannot rely on their erstwhile ally; they are afraid the U.S. could actively harm them. Although other nations will still do deals with Washington, they are increasingly watching their backs and will seek greater autonomy in defence, technology, energy and finance.

The daily stream of news from the White House is disturbing. Trump has imposed tariffs and threatened economic warfare; mused that the U.S. could leave allies in the lurch if Russia attacks them; intimidated Greenland; and taunted Canada that it should become the 51st U.S. state. His open questioning of the American system of checks and balances also raises doubts about whether anybody would stop the president from hurting allies.

The most seismic event was Trump’s pummelling of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy in the Oval Office last month, after which his administration temporarily suspended intelligence sharing and the supply of weapons. U.S. allies have been in a whirlwind of meetings ever since, as they seek to support Kyiv and protect themselves if the U.S. pulls the rug from under them too.

No wise leader of a U.S. ally in Europe, North America or the Indo-Pacific wishes to provoke Trump. They are weak and want to hang onto U.S. support for as long as possible. But they also know they need to reduce their vulnerabilities as fast as they can.

DERISK, NOT DECOUPLE

Two years ago, Western countries embraced a plan to “derisk not decouple” from China. The thinking was that rich democracies, led by the United States, had a fundamental clash of interests and values with the People’s Republic but that their economies were also so intertwined that it would be risky to cut them apart. The plan instead was for Western nations to reduce their dependency on items like Chinese critical minerals and solar panels without disturbing other parts of trade.

The rest of the West now needs to conduct a similar exercise with respect to the U.S. It will be even harder given that Washington’s allies are more reliant on it than they have ever been on China. They also cannot easily turn to Beijing for help, as it remains a threat.

Even so, former friends will have to find solutions. The starting point will be to analyse the most strategically important dependencies. Top of the list is defence.

In the last five years, the United States accounted for 64% of arms imports by European members of the NATO alliance, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. That might have made sense in the past. But after seeing Trump turn off intelligence to Ukraine, which meant Kyiv had to fight Russia virtually blind, the rest of Europe cannot risk being put in the same position.

The U.S. has multiple ways of controlling the defence systems that its companies sell to allies. Even Britain’s supposedly independent nuclear deterrent could degrade over time without U.S. maintenance. Meanwhile, Elon Musk, Trump’s most powerful supporter, has undermined trust in his Starlink satellite system by saying that Ukraine’s “entire front line would collapse” if he turned it off.

It is not surprising that France, which has long called for the European Union to build up its independent defence industry, is winning the argument as the bloc prepares to scale up spending on armaments. Nor that Portugal is considering buying European jets rather than U.S.-made F-35s. Nor that Franco-British satellite firm Eutelsat Communications ETL.PA sees a chance to win a secure communications contract with the Italian government that Starlink seemed to have sewn up.

Further afield, new Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has questioned whether Ottawa should continue with a plan to buy F-35s. The Canadian province of Ontario has scrapped a Starlink contract. And Australian military and political figures are arguing the country should cancel a scheme to buy U.S.-UK nuclear-powered submarines.

FINANCIAL AUTONOMY

High technology, especially artificial intelligence and computing, is the next area where allies are too dependent on the U.S. A well thought out plan to boost defence research should help remedy that weakness, as much new technology should have civilian as well as military uses. The rest of the West may also be able to attract scientists looking for work as Trump cracks down on U.S. universities and research agencies.

Then there’s energy. Many countries rely too much on American oil and gas after cutting their dependence on Russian hydrocarbons. Last month Europe bought 82% of U.S. liquefied natural gas exports. If relations between the two blocs were cordial, buying even more U.S. energy might help to assuage Trump’s concerns about the country’s trade deficit. But it would now be wiser to fast-track the roll-out of renewable energy.

The United States also dominates the global financial system via the dollar and its vast global banks. It has used financial sanctions over the years to whip both friends and foes into line. There is a limit to how much Trump can play this card, however. After all, the flip side of America’s big trade deficit is that many of its allies, especially in the EU, save more than they invest.

The EU wants to channel these savings towards European investments, especially in defence, technology and infrastructure, rather than sending them to the United States. It clearly needs to do more to improve the returns on homegrown investment - for example by streamlining its single market. But the ready supply of savings could give it financial autonomy.

American friends will not want a break with Washington because this will hurt them too. But public opinion in many countries is turning against the United States. This means that governments may well be able to stay the course, even if things get ugly. Trump will need to watch out how he flings his boomerang.

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Many European countries have become more dependent on US arms

Europe imports large volumes of US liquefied natural gas