Ukraine's soybean sales to EU can rise amid tariff war, producers say

KYIV, April 9 (Reuters) - Ukraine may increase its soybean exports to the European Union if the trade conflict between the U.S. and the EU escalates, Ukrainian farm producers union UAC said on Wednesday.

Ukraine harvested a record 6.2 million metric tons of soybean in 2024, but sowing areas could decrease this year due to price volatility.

U.S. President Donald Trump announced a 10% minimum tariff on most U.S. imports, with significantly higher duties on goods from dozens of countries including China, which is likely to prompt countermeasures potentially driving up prices and reducing demand for U.S. goods.

"If the situation with duties between the U.S. and the EU escalates, it is likely that European demand will be redistributed in favour of Ukrainian soybeans," UAC said in a statement.

"Europe is already increasing its purchases from Ukraine, and this trend is likely to intensify in the coming months," it noted.

Ukrainian agricultural analysts said last week that Ukraine-origin corn, a key commodity in the country's grain sector, could benefit from the tariffs imposed by the U.S., as it is able to partially substitute for U.S. corn if retaliatory sanctions are imposed.

UAC said traders had exported 93,000 tons of soybean in April. Ukraine exported 369,000 tons of soybeans in March, 391,000 tons in February and 194,000 tons in January.

Analyst APK-Inform said last month that Ukraine's soybean harvest in 2025 could be between 5.8 and 6.2 million metric tons and the final volume will depend on the amount of rain in May and June, which will determine yields.