LIVE MARKETS-Nasdaq composite poised to be chipped at the open

• US equity index futures red: Nasdaq 100 down >1.5%
• Mar retail sales MM, Ex-Autos MM > ests; Mortgage index < prior
• Euro STOXX 600 index off ~0.5%
• Dollar down; bitcoin slips; crude up ~1.5%; gold up ~2.5%
• US 10-Year Treasury yield edges up to ~4.34%

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NASDAQ COMPOSITE POISED TO BE CHIPPED AT THE OPEN

Ahead of Wednesday's open, e-mini Nasdaq 100 futures NQcv1 are trading down more than 1.5%.

This, with chip darling Nvidia NVDA.O slumping after the company flagged steep charges from new U.S. curbs on chip exports to China, fuelling worries about the fallout of an escalating trade war.

And with ASML ASML.AS, ASML.O, the world's biggest supplier of computer chip-making equipment, declining after the company reported a Q1 bookings miss and said tariffs clouded its outlook.

Thus, the Nasdaq composite .IXIC appears poised for downside pressure at the open:

Of note, after jumping more than 16% off its April 7 intraday low, the IXIC stalled on April 9 at a high of 17,202.94. It ended Tuesday at 16,823.17.

Traders are still eyeing resistance at the March 11 intraday low at 17,238.24 as well as the 76.4%-78.6% Fibonacci retracements of the March 25-April 7 down-leg in the 17,455.82-17,532.75 area.

If the composite can overwhelm these levels, it may add credence to view that recent strength will prove to be more than just a short, sharp, counter-trend bounce.

One measure of the Nasdaq's internal strength, the New High/New Low index, after falling below 10% for the first time since just after the July-October 2023 correction ended, has now improved to 11.9% in what could be the nascent stages of a major bull turn.

Meanwhile, like the S&P 500 index .SPX, the composite has seen a death cross. On April 9, its 50-day moving average (DMA) ended below the 200-DMA for the first time since March 14, 2023, or 520 trading days.

Looking back to 1983, the composite has seen 27 of these death crosses. In 44% of the cases, the death cross was late, meaning that it occurred after the point of maximum intraday decline.

In 56% of the cases the IXIC suffered greater losses (average and median additional decline from the point of the death cross into the ultimate intraday low was -17% and -10%).

Admittedly, additional maximum intraday losses in the wake of death crosses after the 2000, 2002 and 2008, and 2022 tops were especially severe (-64%, -37%, -46%, and -22%).

However, by this measure, since around 1983, it's been around either side of a coin flip as to whether the Nasdaq was in store for greater pain beyond what had already been seen.

(Terence Gabriel)

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