Gold Bull Run: These Gold Stocks to Keep an Eye On

TradingKey - Since the US presidential election, gold trading has experienced persistent volatility, with President Trump's decisive victory initially triggering a sell-off as investors flocked to high-risk assets associated with his pro-growth agenda. 

However, In recent weeks, driven by the impact of US tariff policies and President Trump's remarks suggesting that the United States might consider occupying the Gaza Strip, gold has experienced a continuous upward trajectory, re-entering a bull market, with its year-to-date gains reaching 9%.

US Tariff Policies and Geopolitical Risks as Key Drivers

This week, during a joint press conference with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, President Trump stated that the US should take control of Gaza and lead efforts to rebuild conflict-affected areas. Following these remarks, gold prices continued upward trajectory.  

A more significant driver has been Trump's imposition of tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, along with his threats to take similar measures against the European Union. These moves have prompted investors to seek safe-haven assets. Fears of a prolonged US-China trade war further reinforce gold's role as a hedge against uncertainty.

In the long term, economists warn that Trump's tariffs could worsen inflation and hurt economic growth. Higher consumer prices, stock market instability, and job losses are key risks. Gregory Daco of EY estimates these tariffs and retaliatory measures could cut US GDP growth by 1.5 percentage points in 2025 and 2.1 points in 2026.

The impact on the US economy could also weigh on the US dollar—another factor driving investors toward gold.  

Multiple Sources of Uncertainty Persist 

Uncertainty remains abundant. Regardless of US trade policy, global geopolitical tensions continue to escalate. The Russia-Ukraine war persists, Middle East conflicts remain unresolved, and Trump has vowed to curb Iran’s oil exports to prevent its nuclear development.  

Although the Federal Reserve’s rate-cut trajectory for this year remains uncertain, other central banks have already begun easing monetary policy. Lower interest rates make gold more attractive, as the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets diminishes.  

Rising US Debt and Central Banks' Diversification Efforts  

Concerns over ballooning US debt have also increased gold’s appeal to investors. Trump’s economic team has signaled an intention to "monetize the asset side of the US balance sheet"—in other words, focusing as much on assets as liabilities.  

According to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, House Republicans are considering a sweeping tax and spending bill that could increase the deficit by as much as $5.5 trillion and add approximately $1.3 trillion in interest costs over the next decade. This could trigger turmoil in bond markets later this spring.  

Additionally, analysts believe that central banks will continue diversifying their reserves away from the US dollar, further supporting gold’s long-term rally. "In the background, there is always the BRICS project to initiate a new currency pegged to gold to be used in trade instead of the US dollar," noted Maurizio Mazziero, a financial analyst and commodities expert. "The fact that Trump has announced 100% tariffs for those adopting such a system highlights both its feasibility and the fears surrounding it."  

According to the World Gold Council’s 2024 Central Bank Gold Reserves Survey, 69% of surveyed central banks anticipate further net gold purchases in the future. Central banks emphasize gold’s strategic role in reducing portfolio risk and diversifying foreign exchange reserves.  

Gold Under Trump’s Economics 

To understand this trend, a detailed investor memo written last year by Trump’s chief economic advisor, Stephen Milan, offers valuable insights—many of which align with views expressed by Trump’s economic team.  

As Vice President JD Vance stated in Congress last year, Trump’s economic circle believes that the US dollar is “significantly overvalued”—to the extent that it has hollowed out the nation’s industrial base. They attribute this to the dollar’s status as the world’s reserve currency. At the same time, tariffs could further strengthen the dollar.  

Despite their preference for a weaker dollar, Trump also wants to maintain the currency’s global dominance. This creates an apparent contradiction in policy. However, some market commentators, such as “Luke Gromen”, argue that this contradiction could be resolved if the US Treasury allows gold to surge against the dollar. "Gold is likely to be a key pillar of the new system that the Trump administration seems to be building," Gromen remarked.  

Gold Stocks to Watch 

For investors looking to capitalize on the gold rally, gold-related stocks present compelling opportunities.  

Gold ETFs: SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) and iShares Gold Trust (IAU) have both posted strong gains this year.  

Gold Mining Stocks: Companies such as Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC), AngloGold Ashanti Limited (AU), and Harmony Gold Mining Co. (HMY) —which has surged more than 20 % YTD—are worth monitoring.  

Precious Metals Streaming & Royalty Companies: These firms provide financing to gold miners in exchange for a percentage of future revenues. During gold bull markets, these companies often exhibit strong performance, making them an attractive investment option.