GBP/USD maintains position near 1.2900 as concerns over US economic growth persist

• GBP/USD rises as the US Dollar weakens amid fears that tariff policy uncertainty could drive the US economy into recession.
• Concerns over the US economy deepened after Trump described it as being in a "transition period," signaling a potential slowdown.
• The Pound Sterling appreciated after BoE’s Catherine Mann rejected the need for a “gradual and cautious” approach to monetary easing.

The GBP/USD pair recovers recent losses from the previous session, trading around 1.2890 during Asian hours on Tuesday. The pair edges higher as the US Dollar (USD) struggles amid concerns that tariff policy uncertainty could push the US economy into recession.

Weaker-than-expected US job data for February has strengthened expectations of multiple Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts this year. LSEG data shows that traders now anticipate a total of 75 basis points (bps) in cuts, with a June rate reduction fully priced in.

US economic concerns grew after President Donald Trump characterized the economy as being in a "transition period," hinting at a potential slowdown. Investors took his remarks as an early signal of possible economic turbulence in the near future.

However, Fed Chair Jerome Powell reassured markets that the central bank sees no immediate need to adjust monetary policy despite rising uncertainties. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly echoed this sentiment on Sunday, noting that increasing business uncertainty could dampen demand but does not justify an interest rate change.

With the Federal Reserve entering its blackout period ahead of the March 19 meeting, central bank commentary will be limited this week. Investors are now looking ahead to February’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) release on Wednesday for further insights into inflation trends.

The GBP/USD pair strengthened as the Pound Sterling (GBP) found support after Bank of England (BoE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member Catherine Mann dismissed the need for a “gradual and cautious” approach to monetary easing in response to rising global economic volatility during her speech last week.

However, before Mann’s remarks, four BoE officials, including Governor Andrew Bailey, had advocated for a measured approach to reducing monetary policy restrictiveness, citing concerns that inflation persistence is unlikely to subside “on its own accord.”

GDP FAQs

What is GDP and how is it recorded?

A country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the rate of growth of its economy over a given period of time, usually a quarter. The most reliable figures are those that compare GDP to the previous quarter e.g Q2 of 2023 vs Q1 of 2023, or to the same period in the previous year, e.g Q2 of 2023 vs Q2 of 2022. Annualized quarterly GDP figures extrapolate the growth rate of the quarter as if it were constant for the rest of the year. These can be misleading, however, if temporary shocks impact growth in one quarter but are unlikely to last all year – such as happened in the first quarter of 2020 at the outbreak of the covid pandemic, when growth plummeted.

How does GDP influence currencies?

A higher GDP result is generally positive for a nation’s currency as it reflects a growing economy, which is more likely to produce goods and services that can be exported, as well as attracting higher foreign investment. By the same token, when GDP falls it is usually negative for the currency. When an economy grows people tend to spend more, which leads to inflation. The country’s central bank then has to put up interest rates to combat the inflation with the side effect of attracting more capital inflows from global investors, thus helping the local currency appreciate.

How does higher GDP impact the price of Gold?

When an economy grows and GDP is rising, people tend to spend more which leads to inflation. The country’s central bank then has to put up interest rates to combat the inflation. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold versus placing the money in a cash deposit account. Therefore, a higher GDP growth rate is usually a bearish factor for Gold price.