Alan Long

TradingKey - Since April 2025, copper prices have achieved a cumulative gain of over 60%, driven primarily by the steadily growing market demand for copper amid the continuous development of AI.

TradingKey - Recently, after testing the $62.00 level again, silver prices (XAGUSD) continued to rebound on expectations of US-Iran peace talks, briefly surging to $70 this week. As of the European session on June 17, silver prices consolidated around $69.60. However, technical analysis shows a double-bottom pattern on the weekly chart, which may support a continued rise in silver prices.

Tradingkey - SpaceX (SPCX) is beginning to show signs of cooling down after its strong post-listing rally. Yesterday (June 17), SPCX recorded its first full-session decline since listing, with its share price closing down 4.95% at $191.82, after hitting an intraday low of $187—a pullback of approximately 15% from its previous peak of $225.64. In pre-market trading today, SPCX continued to weaken, slipping over 3% at one point. This indicates that short-term profit-taking is accelerating, and market sentiment has shifted from the previous one-sided chasing of gains to growing divergence.

TradingKey - On Thursday Eastern Time, futures on the three major US stock indexes rose in unison in pre-market trading, as market sentiment recovered significantly from the previous trading session. Although Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh struck a hawkish tone after his first policy meeting, prompting the market to reprice the risk of rate hikes this year, an interim agreement signed between the US and Iran and improved shipping expectations in the Strait of Hormuz continued to weigh on international oil prices, easing concerns over energy inflation and boosting risk appetite for tech stocks.

TradingKey - During the Asian session today (June 18), gold prices (XAU/USD) maintained an intraday rebound, boosted by positive news regarding the potential early signing of a US-Iran agreement. This recovered most of the losses from Wednesday's plunge triggered by the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, with intraday prices rebounding from Wednesday's low of $4,219 to $4,329.9 at one point. On the technical front, $4,360 represents a key near-term resistance for bulls; only a breakthrough above this level can open up further upside for gold prices.

Tradingkey - On Wednesday Eastern Time, data released by the U.S. Census Bureau showed that U.S. retail sales rose 0.9% month-on-month in May, significantly higher than the market expectation of 0.5%. Retail and food services sales in May reached $763.7 billion, up 6.9% year-on-year. Meanwhile, the retail sales growth from March to April was revised down to 0.4% from the previously reported 0.5%.

TradingKey - On Wednesday Eastern Time, US stock index futures were mixed in pre-market trading, as the broader market maintained a cautious yet firm tone. Investors are awaiting the Federal Reserve's June interest rate decision, as well as the inaugural press conference of the new Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh. While a temporary US-Iran agreement recently triggered a sharp decline in oil prices, easing market anxieties over energy inflation, investors continue to assess the implementation details of the deal and whether the Federal Reserve will deliver more hawkish interest rate signals.

TradingKey - SpaceX (SPCX) options officially began trading this Tuesday (June 17). Approximately 1.8 million contracts were traded on the first day, with about $2.8 billion in premium changing hands, breaking the record for the first-day trading volume of a single-stock option. Notably, market sentiment was clearly characterized by momentum-chasing, with call volume outstripping put volume. The overall call/put ratio was approximately 1.3:1, indicating that capital continues to bet on a further rise in SpaceX's share price.

TradingKey - On Tuesday EST, the three major U.S. stock index futures edged higher in pre-market trading as the market entered a wait-and-see stance following a sharp rally in the previous session. An interim agreement between the U.S. and Iran continued to weigh on oil prices, easing market concerns over energy inflation, but investor attention has clearly shifted to this week's Federal Reserve interest rate meeting. This marks the first interest rate decision since Kevin Warsh took office as Federal Reserve Chair, and the market will focus closely on his remarks regarding inflation, employment, and the subsequent path of interest rates.

TradingKey - As of the European session today (June 16), the crude oil market continued to weaken amid expectations of an impending preliminary US-Iran agreement. The market may have begun trading the supply recovery logic, increasing downward pressure on oil prices. As of press time, WTI crude (USOIL) fell 1.63% to $79.85, while Brent crude dropped 1.32% to $82.25.

TradingKey - On Monday ET, the three major U.S. stock index futures rose collectively in pre-market trading as market risk appetite significantly recovered. News of a temporary peace agreement between the U.S. and Iran and the potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz has become the core variable for global markets today. Driven by easing geopolitical risks, international oil prices fell sharply, alleviating inflation concerns, while tech stocks, AI chip stocks, and airline stocks broadly strengthened. As of press time, Dow futures rose 0.91%, S&P 500 futures gained 1.31%, and Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 2.18%.

TradingKey - As of today’s European session (June 15), the crude oil market plummeted intraday, driven by reports that a peace agreement in US-Iran negotiations is nearing signature. WTI (USOIL) crude briefly fell below the $80 mark, dropping over 5%, while Brent crude's decline once exceeded 4%.

TradingKey - As of the Asian session today (June 15), gold prices (XAUUSD) gapped higher and rose over 2% intraday, driven by significant progress in U.S.-Iran negotiations. Gold has rebounded for three consecutive trading days, with the cumulative rally exceeding $300. However, it should be noted that gold faces resistance at $4,360, which may limit short-term upside potential.

TradingKey - The Federal Reserve will convene the FOMC meeting on June 16-17 Eastern Time, announcing its interest rate decision and latest economic projections on June 17. The current target range for the federal funds rate stands at 3.50% to 3.75%. Based on the latest U.S. CPI and non-farm payroll data, the most likely outcome of the June meeting is to keep interest rates unchanged while signaling a more hawkish policy stance.

TradingKey - Over the past year, AI chips, cloud computing, data centers, and a handful of tech giants have propelled the Nasdaq and S&P 500 to continuous gains and repeated record highs. However, as an increasing amount of capital concentrates on the same AI narrative, the U.S. stock market has begun to exhibit typical bubble-like characteristics: high valuations, crowded trades, rising market concentration, and rapid capital expenditure expansion, while actual commercial returns still require time to be validated. Once the market begins to question the return on AI investment, index-level corrections could be more severe than typical sector rotations.

TradingKey - On Friday ET, rising expectations of a U.S.-Iran peace agreement drove a sharp decline in oil prices, easing market concerns over energy inflation. Meanwhile, SpaceX’s (SPCX) largest-ever IPO debuted today, becoming the focus of pre-market trading. The three major U.S. stock index futures rose in pre-market sessions; as of press time, Dow futures were up approximately 0.8%, S&P 500 futures rose about 0.68%, and Nasdaq 100 futures gained roughly 0.64%.

TradingKey - SpaceX will officially list on the Nasdaq at 9:30 AM ET on June 12. Notably, ahead of the listing, several ETF issuers have already moved to launch or file for 2x leveraged long and short products linked to its share price. This implies that investors will be able to bet directly on short-term fluctuations in SpaceX's stock price through leveraged ETFs.

TradingKey - As of the Asian session on June 12, gold (XAUUSD) prices fluctuated and weakened near $4,180. Yesterday, gold prices briefly dipped to near $4,000 before rebounding sharply above $4,200, driven by the impending signing of a US-Iran agreement. However, with the decline for June still reaching approximately 8%, the market continues to exhibit a bearish bias.

TradingKey - Data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on Thursday showed that the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 1.1% month-over-month in May, matching the April gain and exceeding market expectations of 0.7%. The unadjusted final demand PPI rose 6.5% year-over-year, the largest 12-month increase since November 2022, signaling that wholesale inflationary pressures in the U.S. continue to intensify.

TradingKey - On Thursday, Eastern Time, the three major U.S. stock index futures rebounded in pre-market trading. Technology stocks saw a recovery after two consecutive days of declines as markets temporarily digested tensions between the U.S. and Iran along with the impact of the previous day’s hot CPI data. As of press time, Dow futures rose approximately 0.83%, S&P 500 futures gained about 0.76%, and Nasdaq futures climbed around 1.22%.