LIVE MARKETS-S&P 500 index poised for further losses; traders eye the charts

• U.S. equity index futures red: Nasdaq 100 down ~3%
• Euro STOXX 600 index slides >4%
• Dollar up; gold slips; bitcoin; crude both down >2%
• U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield rises to ~4.03%

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S&P 500 INDEX POISED FOR FURTHER LOSSES; TRADERS EYE THE CHARTS

With e-mini S&P 500 futures EScv1 tumbling in premarket trade, the S&P 500 index .SPX appears set to add to its losses at the open.

The SPX ended Friday at 5,074.08, which put it down 17.42% from its record closing high. That said, the futures, which were down as much as 5.4% earlier on Monday, have significantly pared losses. The futures are now off just over 2%.

Meanwhile, the CBOE market volatility index .VIX spiked to 60.13, or its highest level since 65.73 on August 5 of last year. That August 5 spike did coincide with the end of a near-10% slide on an intraday basis from the SPX's July 17 high.

The VIX has since deflated back below 50 (to around 49.3), but it's obviously still elevated. Thus, given the high levels of uncertainty it reflects, traders are bracing for the potential for wide swings, both up and down.

Therefore, attention is turning to the support levels on the S&P 500 index's weekly charts, as well as resistance hurdles:

The S&P 500's April 2024 low was at 4,953.56, while the 50% retracement of the October 2022-Febraury 2025 advance is at 4,819.51. The January 2022 intraday high was at 4,818.62.

The rising 200-week moving average (WMA) should be around 4,675 this week, while the rising 233-WMA, a Fibonacci-based moving average, should be around 4,560.

The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the October 2022-February 2025 advance is at 4,506.11.

Of note, when the SPX ended its 2022 bear market it did it around the 50% retracement of the March 2020-January 2022 advance, as well as its 200- and 233- week moving averages.

Bulls will want to see the SPX reverse back above the August 2024 low (5,119.26), and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the October 2022-February 2025 advance at 5,132.90 to suggest room for a greater recovery.

Another Fibonacci-based moving average, the 89-WMA, should be a hurdle around 5,250.

In order to suggest the potential for something more than just a rapid counter-trend bounce, the SPX would need to overlap the March 13 and March 31 lows in the 5,488.73-5,504.65 area.

(Terence Gabriel)

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FOR MONDAY'S EARLIER LIVE MARKETS POSTS:

DON'T EXPECT THE FED TO COME TO THE RESCUE - CLICK HERE

WATCH THOSE RETAIL FLOWS - CLICK HERE

SELL EVERYTHING! - CLICK HERE

EUROPE BEFORE THE BELL: FUTURES TANK AS TRUMP STICKS TO HIS GUNS - CLICK HERE

TARIFF MEDICINE'S CRIPPLING SIDE EFFECTS - CLICK HERE

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