April 2 "Trump Liberation Day": Businesses and Consumers Struggle to Protect Their Wallets—Where Are the Safe Havens for Investors?

TradingKey – U.S. President Donald Trump is set to officially announce a reciprocal tariff plan at 4:00 PM local time on April 2 in the White House Rose Garden, as U.S. stocks continue to suffer amid volatile trade policy shifts.

Markets widely anticipate that Trump will unveil a sweeping 20% global tariff, though whether exemptions will be added remains undecided. 

Studies indicate that a 20% tariff hike on existing duties would push the U.S. average effective tariff rate to 32.8%—the highest level since 1872.

Economists are nearly unanimous in warning that the new tariffs will significantly increase upside risk to U.S. inflation.

Mounting Pressure on American Households

The Yale Budget Lab projects that global tariffs could drive U.S. inflation up by more than 2%. Without countermeasures from the Federal Reserve,  household purchasing power could decline by an estimated $3,400 to $4,200.

Meanwhile, the Tax Foundation estimates that a flat 20% tariff would raise the average household tax burden by $2,045.

Policy Uncertainty Disrupts Corporate Decision-Making

For U.S. businesses, it’s not just the tariff rates themselves but the unpredictability of Trump’s policies that’s creating chaos in strategic planning.

Timothy Fiore, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), reported in a recent survey that corporate leaders are urging Trump to act decisively rather than continue flip-flopping.

“Industrial executives are tired of all the talk, speculation, and back-and-forth on tariffs coming out of the Trump White House,” Fiore said. “Now they just want to know what the rules are.”

April 2 Trading Guide

For investors, JPMorgan has issued a "Trump Liberation Day" playbook.

The firm noted that policy uncertainty continues to dominate market dynamics. With neither the "Trump put" nor the "Fed put" likely to stabilize markets in the near term, JPMorgan is maintaining a tactically bearish stance on U.S. equities.

The firm added that semiconductor-related uncertainties may weaken defensive plays like NVIDIA and the "Magnificent Seven" tech giants, but it recommends going long on energy and utilities stocks. Financial sectors—banks, insurers, and payment processors—also offer hedging potential.

For global allocations, JPM favors Australia, Japan, and the U.K., while China’s market—buoyed by potential fiscal stimulus—presents notable opportunities.