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GLOBAL MARKETS -Stocks slide, dollar firms as tariff and geopolitical uncertainties weigh

ReutersMar 21, 2025 12:45 PM
  • Gold huddled near record high on safe haven flows
  • Fed's cautious tone provides dollar support
  • Investor focus turns to details of Trump's reciprocal tariffs
  • Germany's upper house set to clear huge spending package
  • Japanese inflation data underpins market bets on BOJ rate hikes

SINGAPORE/LONDON, March 21 (Reuters) - European and world shares fell on Friday but were set for a weekly gain, and the euro steadied just shy of a five-month high, as investors finished a busy week without much more clarity on the big market questions than they had at the start.

MSCI's all country world share index .MIWD00000PUS was last down 0.17% with Europe's STOXX 600 0.7% lower in morning trade .STOXX, after Asian shares .MIAPJ0000PUS had dropped a similar amount earlier in the day.

Wall Street slid overnight, and S&P 500 futures were down around 0.4% heading into the open. ESc1 .N .EU

On the week shares across the world are slightly higher, with the mood somewhat less febrile than it was earlier in March, when markets were dominated by fear that policy uncertainty in the United States, particularly regarding tariffs, would push the world's largest economy into recession.

While those fears have not gone away, central banks were in the spotlight instead this week and the U.S. Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England all held rates steady.

With the main questions for markets being matters of fiscal and geopolitical policy, however, policymakers too were left with little to say other than to emphasise what Fed chair Jerome Powell called the "unusually elevated" uncertainty.

Investors will now focus on the details of the Trump administration's April 2 reciprocal tariffs, which remain unclear, while reports of Israeli airstrikes on Gaza and a huge blast from a Ukrainian drone attack on a Russian military airfield were a reminder of rising geopolitical tensions pushing investors towards safe haven assets.

On top of that, Britain's Heathrow Airport, the world's fifth busiest, was shut after a huge fire at a nearby electrical substation, and investors were reassessing bets on Turkey's turnaround story after the long-feared detention of President Tayyip Erdogan's main political rival earlier in the week.

GERMAN SPLURGE

As well, Germany's Bundesrat upper house of parliament on Friday approved plans for a spending splurge. Though that was expected, investor focus is now turning to where and how quickly the money will be spent.

That tectonic shift in Germany, alongside fears of the U.S. recession, have caused a dramatic shift in markets this year, with shares in Europe and Asia outperforming the U.S., particularly once loved tech stocks, and the euro surging. While those moves slowed this week, many analysts think the shift will continue.

"When leadership changes in markets after three years of one-directional trades it doesn't disappear in three months," said Manish Kabra, multi-asset strategist and head of U.S. equity strategy at Societe Generale.

"The point is this is rotation in currencies and in equities both between regions and within the U.S."

The dramatic recent moves in currencies, which have seen the dollar weaken against most peers, with the euro and Japanese yen standing out, also have been calmer in recent days.

The euro EUR=EBS was steady $1.0856 - down on the week, but after finishing February at $1.0375 and hitting a five-month high of $1.0955 earlier this week the bigger picture narrative is still one of euro strength.

The yen JPY=EBS was steady 148.85 per dollar, but 5% stronger this year on expectations that the BOJ will hike rates again in 2025.

Data on Friday showed Japan's core inflation hit 3.0% in February and an index stripping away the effect of fuel rose at the fastest pace in nearly a year, a sign of broadening price pressures that reinforces market expectations of further hikes.

"Although Governor Ueda made much of the risks surrounding U.S. trade policy on Wednesday, we think he’s just hedging his bets - considering it a risk factor," said Min Joo Kang, senior economist at ING.

"Therefore, if trade tensions don't escalate more than the market currently expects, they won't affect the BOJ's rate hike plans."

In commodities, oil dipped but was set for its strongest weekly performance since January.

Brent crude futures LCOc1 shed 0.6% to $71.66 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures CLc1 were down 0.35% at $67.83. Both were up around 1.5% on the week.

Gold XAU= eased 0.5% to $3,030 an ounce as investors booked profits after the yellow metal climbed to a record high in the previous session. GOL/

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