BREAKINGVIEWS-Tobacco giant's value push is running out of puff

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are her own.

By Ujjaini Dutta

BENGALURU, Jan 10 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Smoking is about to look even less attractive. Shares of India’s ITC ITC.NS, the $65 billion conglomerate backed by British American Tobacco BATS.L, have barely moved since the company announced plans in July 2023 to spin off hotels despite a rally in the emerging market's equities. Now ITC faces the prospect of higher taxes on its core cigarettes business. For boss Sanjiv Puri, the challenges of unlocking value will mount as growth in the economy slows.

His decision to list the hospitality business, which generates about 4% of the group’s revenue, makes sense. Despite the slowdown in consumption, the Indian premium tourism market is growing exponentially. ITC Hotels, whose shares are due to start trading in February, is a luxury specialist with some 140 properties from New Delhi to Colombo.

Indian Hotels IHTL.NS, part of the Tata Group and a direct competitor, trades at 58 times forward earnings. That's more than twice the multiple of ITC, which will share any success because it retains a 40% stake in the unit. In the meantime, separating from its parent will make it easier for the capital-intensive hotel chain to attract investors because many institutional funds shun tobacco stocks.

The fact ITC shares are stuck, however, reflects a threat rather than an opportunity. Last month, a group of ministers mulling a rationalisation of a goods and services tax proposed adding a fifth, higher, slab of 35% for tobacco products as well as aerated beverages, news agency PTI reported, citing an official. The current rate for cigarettes, which generate nearly half of ITC sales, is 28%.

Sin products are an obvious target for officials who want to boost government revenue: ITC's cigarette sales have barely recovered to the level they were at prior to the initial implementation of a nationwide GST in 2017. Companies expected the sheer number of tax slabs to reduce over time, not increase. Worse, Indians are lighting up again in the black market because cigarettes there aren't subject to tax. Those products were harder to come by during the pandemic but supply is easing again.

Puri, in his capacity as president of the influential Confederation of Indian Industry, is calling for lower taxes and a simpler three-tier GST structure to boost consumption. That would help restore some puff to both ITC and the economy.

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CONTEXT NEWS

Shares of ITC Hotels, a unit spun off from Indian tobacco-led conglomerate ITC, are expected to start trading in February.

In December, a group of ministers on the country’s Goods and Services Tax council proposed hiking the tax on sin goods like cigarettes, aerated beverages and tobacco products to 35%, from the current 28%, news agency PTI reported, citing an official.

(Editing by Una Galani and Aditya Srivastav)

((For previous columns by the author, Reuters customers can click on DUTTA/
ujjaini.dutta@thomsonreuters.com))