tradingkey.logo

TREASURIES-Yields dip as Trump policies stay in focus

ReutersJan 9, 2025 7:21 PM

Updated in New York afternoon time

By Karen Brettell

- Treasury yields eased on Thursday following a sharp selloff that sent 10-year yields to a more than eight-month high on Wednesday as traders evaluated the likely economic impact of policies proposed by the incoming administration of President-elect Donald Trump.

Business deregulation and tax cuts are likely to boost U.S. growth while a crackdown on illegal immigration and tariffs are seen as potentially fanning inflation. The Federal Reserve, meanwhile, is expected to be more cautious in cutting interest rates as it watches the economic impact of the changes.

With considerable uncertainty over what policies exactly Trump will introduce, traders are pricing in much stronger growth as the default option, said Thomas Simons, U.S. economist at Jefferies in New York.

"We can't predict how it's going to go wrong," he said. "So you're left with this only path forward that is - well, I guess it means we're going to have more growth, it means we're going to have more inflation, it means that the Fed is probably not going to cut as much."

The U.S. government is also expected to increase debt auction sizes this year if the budget deficit continues to worsen, as is widely expected for the foreseeable future, and as it balances its debt maturity profile to rely less on shorter-dated bills.

Fed Governor Michelle Bowman and Boston Fed President Susan Collins on Thursday both expressed taking a cautious approach to further rate cuts.

Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid also signaled a reluctance to cut interest rates again while Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker said he still expects the U.S. central bank to cut interest rates, but added that any sort of imminent move down isn't needed.

Thursday's pause in the bond selloff came before jobs data on Friday, which is expected to show that employers added 160,000 jobs during the month. USNFAR=ECI

Trading volumes were also light as the U.S. bond market closed early in honor of former President Jimmy Carter.

Interest rate-sensitive two-year note yields US2YT=RR fell 2.3 basis points on the day to 4.268%.

Benchmark 10-year yields US10YT=RR fell 0.2 basis points to 4.691%. They peaked at 4.73% on Wednesday, the highest since April 25.

The yield curve between two-year and 10-year notes US2US10=TWEB steepened two basis points to 42.1 basis points, after reaching 42.9 basis points on Wednesday, the steepest since May 2022.

Thirty-year Treasury yields US30YT=RR were flat at 4.932%, after reaching 4.968% on Wednesday, the highest since November 2023.

(Reporting by Karen Brettell
Editing by Bernadette Baum and Deepa Babington)

((karen.brettell@thomsonreuters.com;))

Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Related Articles

tradingkey.logo
tradingkey.logo
Intraday Data provided by Refinitiv and subject to terms of use. Historical and current end-of-day data provided by Refinitiv. All quotes are in local exchange time. Real-time last sale data for U.S. stock quotes reflect trades reported through Nasdaq only. Intraday data delayed at least 15 minutes or per exchange requirements.
* References, analysis, and trading strategies are provided by the third-party provider, Trading Central, and the point of view is based on the independent assessment and judgement of the analyst, without considering the investment objectives and financial situation of the investors.
Risk Warning: Our Website and Mobile App provides only general information on certain investment products. Finsights does not provide, and the provision of such information must not be construed as Finsights providing, financial advice or recommendation for any investment product.
Investment products are subject to significant investment risks, including the possible loss of the principal amount invested and may not be suitable for everyone. Past performance of investment products is not indicative of their future performance.
Finsights may allow third party advertisers or affiliates to place or deliver advertisements on our Website or Mobile App or any part thereof and may be compensated by them based on your interaction with the advertisements.
© Copyright: FINSIGHTS MEDIA PTE. LTD. All Rights Reserved.