DXY: Extends its move higher – OCBC

The US Dollar (USD) extended its move higher, likely in anticipation of US CPI data tomorrow. DXY was last at 105.76 levels, OCBC’s FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

Near term risks skewed to the upside

“Consensus expects core to hold steady at 3.3% while headline CPI may come in higher at 2.6%. The uptick may raise doubts if Fed will still cut rates in Dec, adding to USD upward pressure. We do however expect Fed to cut in Dec amid cooling job market.”

“Moreover, post-FOMC last week, Powell commented that the election will have no near-term effect on monetary policy decisions. Elsewhere, tariff risk and Trump policy uncertainty may continue to keep USD supported on dips.”

“Daily momentum turned bullish while RSI rose. Near term risks skewed to the upside. Break puts next resistance at 106.20, 106.50 levels (2024 high). Support at 104.60 (61.8% fibo), 103.70/80 levels (200 DMAs, 50% fibo retracement of 2023 high to 2024 low).”