tradingkey.logo

USD: Trump trades boost the US Dollar – ING

FXStreetNov 6, 2024 8:44 AM

The reaction to the US election so far in the FX market has been, as expected, a strong dollar across the board.

Expect a prolonged period of dollar outperformance

“There is no huge divergence across G10 currencies performance, where daily losses amount to around 1.0-1.7% except for the Canadian dollar, which is down by less than 1%. That mirrors a view that a Republican clean sweep is positive for the US economy and, by extension, Canadian exporters, as well as the fact that CAD will be less exposed to tariffs on China and geopolitical developments under a new Trump presidency.”

“The bear steepening and widespread selloff across the Treasury yield curve mirrors widespread expectations for an inflationary mix of domestic (fiscal and migration) and external (tariffs) policies from Trump. We are also observing some action in the short-term USD swap rates linked to a hawkish repricing in Fed rate expectations.”

“In line with our expectations and consensus, markets are holding on to expectations for a 25bp FOMC cut to 4.75% tomorrow, but the OIS curve has recorded some 10bp+ repricing across 2025 tenors. That embeds a policy rate close to 4.0% in June 2025, almost 100bp higher than mid-September pricing.”

Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Related Articles

tradingkey.logo
tradingkey.logo
Intraday Data provided by Refinitiv and subject to terms of use. Historical and current end-of-day data provided by Refinitiv. All quotes are in local exchange time. Real-time last sale data for U.S. stock quotes reflect trades reported through Nasdaq only. Intraday data delayed at least 15 minutes or per exchange requirements.
* References, analysis, and trading strategies are provided by the third-party provider, Trading Central, and the point of view is based on the independent assessment and judgement of the analyst, without considering the investment objectives and financial situation of the investors.
Risk Warning: Our Website and Mobile App provides only general information on certain investment products. Finsights does not provide, and the provision of such information must not be construed as Finsights providing, financial advice or recommendation for any investment product.
Investment products are subject to significant investment risks, including the possible loss of the principal amount invested and may not be suitable for everyone. Past performance of investment products is not indicative of their future performance.
Finsights may allow third party advertisers or affiliates to place or deliver advertisements on our Website or Mobile App or any part thereof and may be compensated by them based on your interaction with the advertisements.
© Copyright: FINSIGHTS MEDIA PTE. LTD. All Rights Reserved.