DXY: Bullish momentum fading – OCBC

The US Dollar (USD) rally paused overnight as markets took stock on the 4% rally in DXY since end of September, OCBC’s FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

Daily momentum remains bullish

“Today marks the start of a busy, eventful 2 weeks with JOLTS job openings, consumer sentiment (Tue); ADP employment (Wed); core PCE (Thu) and NFP (Fri) before US elections (5 Nov) and FOMC (7 Nov) the following week. Between now and then, we should see 2-way trades in USD. DXY was last at 104.27.”

“Daily momentum remains bullish but there are signs of it fading while RSI eased lower from overbought conditions. We see room for USD to retrace lower. That said, pullback may also be shallow ahead of US elections next week.”

“Support at 103.80 levels (200 DMA, 50% fibo), 102.90/103.20 levels (21, 100 DMAs, 38.2% fibo fibo retracement of 2023 high to 2024 low) and 101.90 (50 DMA). Resistance at 104.60 (61.8% fibo), 105.20 levels.”