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CEE MARKETS-Central European stocks up on US tech tariff pause, currencies mostly flat

ReutersApr 14, 2025 9:01 AM

- Central European stock markets rose on Monday, following global peers after U.S. President Donald Trump excluded smartphones and computers from China tariffs, while currencies were mostly flat in cautious trade.

Markets have been whiplashed by U.S. trade policy in recent weeks, including the threat of hefty additional tariffs on many European Union goods. Those duties have since been paused, giving some breathing space, although a blanket 10% tariff on U.S. imports will remain.

The uncertainty has hit central Europe's economies, with the Czech finance ministry last week scaling back growth expectations. Late on Friday, Standard & Poor's cut Hungary's Hungary's credit rating outlook to negative from stable, citing growing risks to fiscal stability from trade wars, lower EU fund inflows and high debt servicing costs.

"The market was probably expecting this step, that this could happen in this economic environment, especially now that we are getting closer to the elections (in Hungary) next year," one local trader said.

On Monday, Hungary's forint was taking the rating move in stride, slightly underperforming peers in the region and trading near 2-1/2 month lows. It was 0.1% lower at 40.85 to the euro at 0812 GMT.

Bond markets were also little moved on Monday, and Budapest's main stock index .BUX was up 1.6%, sitting in the middle of the range it has seen in the swings caused by the announcement of U.S. tariffs this month.

Other stock indexes also climbed, led by a 2.4% rise in Warsaw-listed blue-chips .WIG20, though gains were limited as the United States has warned levies are likely at some point.

The Czech finance ministry last week cut its 2025 growth forecast to 2.0% from 2.3%, largely because of trade uncertainty hurting investment activity. The ministry's outlook included U.S. tariffs on steel, aluminium, cars and car parts but not additional across-the-board tariffs currently suspended.

In Poland, markets are pricing in the first rate cuts since the central bank paused easing in late-2023.

"(Last) Wednesday's de-escalation of trade wars by the U.S. helped Polish bonds, which are rising in value under the influence of a dovish turn in the (central bank). We expect this process to continue this week," Bank Pekao analysts said.

Yields were down 2-6 basis points on Monday, while the zloty EURPLN= inched up 0.3% to 4.2805 per euro and was just above a four-month low beyond 4.30 hit a week ago.

The Czech crown EURCZK= was steady at 25.074 per euro while Romania's leu EURRON= was flat at 4.9782 to the euro.

CEE MARKETS SNAPSHOT AT 1012 CET

CURRENCIES

Latest trade

Previous close

Daily change

Change in 2025

Czech crown

EURCZK=

25.0740

25.0850

+0.04%

+0.54%

Hungary forint

EURHUF=

409.8500

409.4500

-0.10%

+0.38%

Polish zloty

EURPLN=

4.2805

4.2920

+0.27%

-0.09%

Romanian leu

EURRON=

4.9782

4.9782

+0.00%

-0.03%

Serbian dinar

EURRSD=

117.1500

117.2200

+0.06%

-0.17%

Note: daily change calculated from 1800 CET

STOCKS

Latest

Previous close

Daily change

Change in 2025

Prague

.PX

2006.72

1986.5300

+1.02%

+14.01%

Budapest

.BUX

86305.65

84947.50

+1.60%

+8.80%

Warsaw

.WIG20

2588.99

2529.25

+2.36%

+18.11%

Bucharest

.BETI

17129.59

17045.91

+0.49%

+2.45%

BONDS

Yield (bid)

Yield change

Spread vs Bund

Daily change in spread

Czech Rep 2-year

CZ2YT=RR

3.2890

0.0050

+151bps

-2bps

Czech Rep 5-year

CZ5YT=RR

3.6520

0.0020

+154bps

-2bps

Poland 2-year

PL2YT=RR

4.4210

-0.0560

+264bps

-8bps

Poland 5-year

PL5YT=RR

4.8030

-0.0160

+269bps

-4bps

Poland 10-year

PL10YT=RR

5.2660

-0.0250

+271bps

-5bps

FORWARD RATE AGREEMENTS

3x6

6x9

9x12

3M interbank

Czech Rep

CZKFRA, PRIBOR=

3.46

3.21

3.00

3.69

Hungary

HUFFRA, BUBOR=

6.95

6.83

6.41

6.50

Poland

PLNFRA, WIBOR=

4.51

4.02

3.80

5.58

Note: FRA quotes are for ask prices

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