Singapore March exports miss forecasts, rise by 5.4% from a year ago

By Bing Hong Lok

SINGAPORE, April 17 (Reuters) - Singapore's non-oil domestic exports in March rose 5.4% from the same month a year earlier, government data showed on Thursday, with shipments of both electronics and non-electronics increasing.

The increase fell short of a Reuters poll that forecast 14.1% growth for March, and was down from a 7.6% rise in February.

Details of the month-on-month seasonally adjusted change in exports were not included in Enterprise Singapore's statement.

Exports to Taiwan, Indonesia, Hong Kong, Thailand, Japan and South Korea increased in annual terms in March, while exports to China declined, the statement said.

Singapore's trade and export-oriented economy is open to severe dislocations as a result of the tariffs being enacted by the United States under President Donald Trump, which are expected to slow global trade. That has raised concerns among the city-state's officials and analysts for its economic outlook.

Singapore's Trade Minister Gan Kim Yong said on Wednesday a recession could not be ruled out in the city-state because of Trump's tariff policy.

OCBC economist Selena Ling said that external trade growth would likely contract in the second half of 2025 because of the U.S. tariffs.

"The shift from a rules-based to a deals-based trading system has introduced heightened unpredictability and potentially undermines global economic stability," she said. "Singapore, as a trade, transport and logistics hub, is deeply integrated into global trade networks and vulnerable to ripple effects of the global trade whiplash and growth slowdown."

Singapore's Prime Minister Lawrence Wong said on Wednesday there was little comfort in the U.S. postponing most of its proposed "reciprocal" tariffs for three months, saying the changes had already created great uncertainty around the world.

On Monday, the central bank loosened monetary policy for the second time this year and the trade ministry lowered its economic growth forecast for 2025.