US Plains HRW Wheat-Basis steady-weak after USDA raises stocks forecast

ReutersApr 10, 2025 11:27 PM

CHICAGO, April 10 (Reuters) - Spot basis bids for hard red winter (HRW) wheat were steady to weaker in the southern U.S. Plains on Thursday, softening after the U.S. Department of Agriculture raised its forecast of old-crop HRW wheat inventories.

* The USDA in a monthly supply/demand report projected HRW wheat stocks remaining at the end of the 2024/25 marketing year on May 31, 2025, at 408 million bushels, up from its previous forecast of 382 million.

* The larger stocks figure WASDE05 reflected reduced estimates of 2024/25 feed and residual use as well as exports.

* K.C. HRW wheat futures extended declines after the USDA's report was released, with the nearby May KWK25 contract leading the way down. K.C. May wheat KWK25 settled down 10 cents at $5.58 a bushel.

* The USDA also raised its forecasts of overall U.S. 2024/25 wheat ending stocks and global wheat stocks more than most analysts expected.

* The track basis for railcars of HRW wheat at the U.S. Gulf Coast fell by 10 cents a bushel, and the spot basis weakened by a nickel at grain elevators in Enid and Catoosa, Oklahoma.

* Protein premiums for HRW wheat shipped by rail to or through Kansas City were mixed. Premiums fell by 3 cents for "ordinary" wheat with less than 11% protein, and by 5 cents for wheat with 12.4% through 12.8% protein. But premiums rose by 2 cents for wheat with 13.8% protein. KCBT/SCA

* The weekly U.S. Drought Monitor showed dry conditions eased in Kansas and Oklahoma in the week ended April 8. But weather forecasts called for limited rains in the next week, adding to fears of crop stress.

Basis values are quoted against futures in cts/bu:

	Current			Previous			Cash
	basis			basis			price
KANSAS
Wichita	-41	+	K	-41	+	K	$5.17
Newton	-70	+	K	-70	+	K	$4.88
Goodland	-82	+	K	-82	+	K	$4.76

TEXAS
Gulf track*	100	+	K	110	+	K	$6.58
Galveston**	100	+	K	100	+	K	$6.58

OKLAHOMA
Enid	-45	+	K	-40	+	K	$5.13
Catoosa	15	+	K	20	+	K	$5.73

NOTES:

H = March, K = May, N = July, U = September

Z = December; UNQ = Unquoted bids

0 = Sp Option price; NC = No comparison

* = No. 1 12% hard winter wheat, rail bids

** = Ordinary protein, rail bids

LINKS:

* K.C. HRW wheat protein scales KCBT/SCA

* U.S. weekly wheat crop progress US/WHE

* U.S. forward basis WHEAT/BASIS

* U.S. Midwest cash grain PM GRA/PM

* U.S. FOB Gulf Grain GRA/F

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