Goldman expects copper price to drop to $8,300/T in 3Q2025

April 9 (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs on Wednesday said it expected copper prices to drop to a monthly average of $8,300 per metric ton in the third quarter of 2025, citing a potential weakening of industrial production and heightened uncertainty for investment.

U.S. President Donald Trump's "reciprocal" tariffs on dozens of countries took effect on Wednesday, including duties totalling a massive 104% on Chinese goods, deepening a global trade war even as he prepared to negotiate with some nations.

The tariffs could reduce industrial demand, which may lower copper prices.

The Wall Street brokerage cut its global refined copper demand growth forecast to 1.3% year-over-year in 2025 and 2.3% in 2026, down from previous estimates of 3.2% and 1.8%, respectively.

The "revision is driven by slower ex-China demand growth following multiple GDP growth forecast revisions after last week's US tariff announcement," the bank said.

Goldman said that due to the demand growth downgrade, it now expect a global copper market surplus of 100,000 tons in 2025, compared to a previously expected deficit of 180,000 tons.

The bank said that while it sees the expected copper market deficit as delayed rather than derailed, it still forecast the market will shift into a deficit of 120,000 tons in 2026.

The benchmark three-month copper CMCU3 on the London Metal Exchange (LME) was down 0.9% to $8,574.50 per metric ton, as of 0607 GMT. MET/L