Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD bears have the upper hand while below 200-day SMA near $30.00

• Silver kicks off the new week on a weaker note and seems vulnerable to weakening further.
• The recent failures near the 200-day SMA validate the negative outlook for the XAG/USD.
• A sustained strength beyond the $30.00 mark is needed to negate the near-term bearish bias. 

Silver (XAG/USD) extends Friday's modest pullback from the vicinity of the $30.00 psychological mark and edges lower at the start of a new week. The white metal drops below the mid-$29.00s during the Asian session and now seems to have stalled its recovery from a multi-month trough touched in December. 

From a technical perspective, the recent breakdown and repeated failures near the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) favor bearish traders. This, along with the fact that oscillators on the daily chart are holding in negative territory, suggests that the path of least resistance for the XAG/USD is to the downside. Some follow-through selling below the $29.40 area will reaffirm the outlook and make the commodity vulnerable to weakening towards the $29.00 mark.

The downside trajectory could extend further towards the $28.75-$28.70 region, or the multi-month low, which should act as a key pivotal point. A sustained break below will set the stage for an extension of a well-established downtrend from the $35.00 neighborhood, or a multi-year peak touched in October. 

On the flip side, the $30.00 mark (200-day SMA) might continue to act as an immediate strong barrier, above a bout of a short-covering could lift the XAG/USD to the next relevant hurdle near the $30.50 area. The momentum could eventually allow the white metal to reclaim the $31.00 mark and test the $31.15-$31.20 supply zone.

Silver daily chart