US friends and foes buckle up for new 'America first' era: Peter Apps

The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.

By Peter Apps

LONDON, Jan 24 (Reuters) - Less than 24 hours after U.S. President Donald Trump was sworn into office on Monday, new Secretary of State Marco Rubio met foreign minister counterparts from America’s closest allies in the Indo-Pacific - the so-called “Quad” with Australia, India and Japan, as aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson finished its first big 2025 training exercise in waters near the Philippines.

For all the early focus on efforts to end the Ukraine and Middle East conflicts, the Trump administration will have surprised few by focusing so early on countries key to America’s confrontation with China.

Already, though, there are also signs of just how different this new era may truly be. America’s partners and adversaries both appear to be scrambling to adapt to that new reality.

In his inaugural address, Trump announced what he called a new “golden age” in which the U.S. would build its military strength and look to expand its territory – the latter something no U.S. president has pledged in more than a century. But he did not refer to allies, friends or partners once, except in reference to putting “America first” in all interactions.

Speaking to State Department personnel this week, Rubio told them that U.S. foreign policy would be "centred on one thing, and that is the advancement of our national interest ... Anything that makes us stronger or safer or more prosperous ... - that will be our mission."

As former British Foreign Secretary David Miliband told a UK broadcaster: "Trump was elected as a disruptor. The message is: 'Buckle up'. They don't buy the argument that America benefits from its global stabilising role. One should respect the electoral mandate that he has, but also understand that he's not kidding."

Japanese Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya, who met Rubio on Tuesday, was an early engager with that rhetoric, saying he had stressed Japan had been the largest foreign investor in the U.S. for the last five years and was also now spending much more on defence just as Trump demanded.

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte echoed that on Thursday, saying Trump was "right" to demand U.S. allies do more on defence.

As a group, the Quad ministers stressed that within the region they "strongly oppose any unilateral actions that seek to change the status quo by force or coercion".

That appeared to be a veiled reference to Taiwan, which China has repeatedly expressed its determination to “reunify” with the mainland and which U.S. military officials say Beijing may be ready to invade as soon as 2027.

Several of Trump’s Pentagon appointments – including Elbridge Colby, incoming Under Secretary of Defense for Policy – have argued that the U.S. must prioritise the rising threat from China, if necessary by drawing resources away from Europe in general and Ukraine in particular. But they have also warned that Taiwan itself must do much more in its own defence.

That latter point, however, may be an early stumbling point for the Trump administration.

Taiwan’s opposition Kuomintang party – once the Nationalist government that ran the island after fleeing mainland China in 1949 following the communist victory, but now the most pro-China of its major parties – looks set to block increases in defence spending favoured by the ruling Democratic Progressive Party.

Under mounting pressure from intensifying Chinese patrols around their air space and waters, a situation in which local politics prevented Taiwan building up its defences would be the worst-case scenario for President Lai Ching-te’s government in Taipei.

It is already worried about comments from Trump and Vice President J.D. Vance suggesting Taiwan was not doing enough to justify ongoing U.S. protection.

But both Taiwan and the Philippines will have been more cheered by recent words from Rubio.

"If the Chinese are, in fact, serious about stabilising U.S.-China relations and ...avoiding conflict, then they will not do anything rational or irrational when it comes to Taiwan and the Philippines," Rubio said last week at his Senate confirmation hearing. "They really need to stop messing around with Taiwan and the Philippines, because it's forcing us to focus our attention in ways we prefer not to have."

QUESTIONS ON EUROPE, UKRAINE

For his part, Trump has presented his determination to end conflicts elsewhere in the world as a sign of his determination to avoid a wider global conflict.

"I will end the war in Ukraine, I will stop the chaos in the Middle East and I will prevent World War Three from happening – and you have no idea how close we are," he told a pre-inauguration rally.

So far, that effort does seem to have helped win the start of hostage releases under the Gaza ceasefire deal, as well as a commitment from Iran-backed Houthi militants in Yemen not to attack vessels not linked to Israel passing nearby waters.

Writing on his True Social media platform late on Wednesday, Trump demanded Russian President Vladimir Putin stop the “ridiculous war” in Ukraine or face increased sanctions, taxes and tariffs.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy told Bloomberg at the World Economic Forum in Davos this week that he believed U.S. troops must be part of any post-war peacekeeping mission in his country. "Even if some European friends think it can be, it can't be. Nobody will risk without the United States," he said.

Still, both Zelenskiy and French President Emmanuel Macron told the gathering that Europe needed to do much more in its own defence.

Last week, concerns that the new Trump administration might scale back military cooperation with allies – or the very least, demand they do much more – was the elephant in the room at a meeting of NATO and other allied chiefs of defence in Brussels.

As well as NATO’s 32-nation military committee, the gathering included delegations from Japan, South Korea, Australia and multiple other countries.

It was attended by the Chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs, Air Force General Charles “CQ” Brown, an African-American F-16 pilot whom likely incoming Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth has suggested should be removed from office for being too “woke” and focused on diversity. Brown has avoided commenting on the issue, but said he intends to serve out his term in office.

Over the last year and recent months in particular, NATO officials have been working to set up its latest command unit, NSATU – NATO Security Assistance and Training for Ukraine – at Wiesbaden in Germany. It comprises approximately 700 personnel from allied and partner nations coordinating weapons deliveries to the government in Kyiv against Russia's invasion.

As NATO Supreme Allied Commander Europe General Chris Cavoli – also America’s top commander on the continent – described it, NSATU will also see allied resources used to protect the weapons delivery sites against any Russian threat.

When Russian drones approached the NATO border earlier this month while passing over Ukraine, that included scrambling Norwegian F-35 jets ready to intercept them if they entered alliance territory – which on that occasion they did not.

Cavoli also pointed to the speed with which NATO had set up its new BALTIC SENTRY mission – using ships, planes and drones to track suspected Russian interference with critical subsea pipes and cables.

This, he said, was an example of what NATO’s European members are now able to do separately to the United States, although other officials said the drones in particular took advantage of U.S. experience.

UNANSWERED QUESTIONS

NATO officials hope Trump and those around him will take such developments as a sign Europe has been listening.

But the bottom line is that most European nations remain well short of the 5% commitment of GDP towards defence Trump now says he wants – so far only Lithuania and Poland have pledged to reach that level, but many other allies lag far behind.

Just as important as how Trump deals with allies, however, is how his relationship develops with potential foes.

He has threatened new 10 percent tariffs on Chinese goods, a move linked directly to allegations that China has been pushing the highly addictive drug fentanyl into the U.S. and its neighbours, something Beijing denies.

Those threatened tariffs, however, are considerably lower than the 60 percent Trump mooted during his election campaign.

Having declined Trump’s invitation to attend the inauguration – something that might have made him look more like a supplicant than he might have wished, Chinese President Xi Jinping held what appeared to be a friendly call with Trump on Friday shortly before he entered office, congratulating him on his win, also discussing trade and the recent U.S. ban on Chinese social media platform TikTok.

Trump himself credits TikTok with helping him win votes among young people and has pledged to overturn the Biden administration’s ban.

TikTok’s Singapore-born CEO Shou Zi Chew attended the inauguration under the rotunda of the Capitol, seated next to Tulsi Gabbard, Trump’s nominee for Director of National Intelligence.

That will probably already have unsettled some U.S. allies, many of whom regard TikTok as a state-controlled tool of Chinese influence also used by Russia, and are unsettled by the appointment of Gabbard.

The former congresswoman from Hawaii and U.S. army reservist has yet to receive senatorial approval, but had previously met and largely endorsed ousted Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad and also repeated Kremlin talking points particularly on Ukraine.

America’s potential foes are also taking stock.

Putin and Xi held a videoconference shortly after the U.S. inauguration ceremony, almost certainly to discuss how they will handle Trump’s new transactional approach.

Russia also last week signed a defence pact with a – although it stopped short of including a mutual defence clause like a similar deal with North Korea.

Trump and his administration will be looking for ways to split China, Russia, North Korea and Iran and reduce their mutual cooperation. But this group, termed the new “axis of resistance” or “upheaval”, will be hoping America’s alliances that have helped maintain Western dominance since 1945 will unravel first.