JPMorgan answers why the next three weeks are critical for Biden

Since the presidential debate, Biden’s family and senior Democratic leaders, including Obama, Clinton, Pelosi, Schumer, Jeffries, and Clyburn, have all supported his candidacy. 

According to JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM), the next three weeks are critical as substantial deterioration of support from swing states could be a game changer for whether Biden remains in the race. 

However, if Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer or other senior Democrats publicly urge Biden to withdraw, it would signal a serious shift. The move could be driven by concerns over key swing state polls impacting Congressional races.

Biden has over 3,900 of roughly 4,000 pledged delegates, which secures his nomination at the Democratic convention. Despite calls for an early nomination, Democrats plan to formally nominate Biden before the late-August convention to ensure ballot access in Ohio. 

A candidate needs a simple majority to win on the first ballot. If Biden doesn't secure this, which is unlikely, unless he has a health issue, over 700 superdelegates will vote, potentially opening the door for other candidates. A contested convention, which Democrats want to avoid, could aid Trump's re-election chances.

JPMorgan also pointed out that Biden has seen a 1.5 to 2.0%-pt deterioration in national-level support since the debate.

“If Biden trails Trump by 8-10%-pts in polls from key swing states over the next three weeks, particularly Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, there will be significant pressure for him to drop out of the race,” it added. 

The brokerage firm also noted that in case of Biden’s step down, Democrats’ Plan B is going to be Kamala Harris. 

“In the event that Biden was to step down after the convention, then the 500 members of the Democratic National Committee must select a new nominee through a closed-door process without input from primary voters and will likely choose Kamala Harris,” it said. 

Keeping all this aside, Biden has been more successful in fundraising than Trump, with the former raising $127 million in June against the latter’s $112 million. Biden raised $38 million since the debate.