GBP/USD Price Analysis: Holds below 1.2800, bearish bias remains intact

• GBP/USD posts modest gains around 1.2770 in Tuesday’s Asian session. 

• The negative bias of the pair remains intact, with bearish RSI indicator. 

• The immediate resistance level is seen at 1.2840; the first downside target is located at 1.2735. 

The GBP/USD pair trades with mild losses near 1.2770 during the Asian trading hours on Tuesday. The modest recovery of the US Dollar (USD) helps limit the pair’s losses after retracing to 1.2710 in the previous session.  

According to the 4-hour chart, the major pair keeps the bearish vibe unchanged, with the price holding below the key 100-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA). The downward momentum is also supported by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) which stands below the 50-midline near 44.0, supporting the sellers for the time being. 

The lower limit of the Bollinger Band at 1.2735 acts as an initial support level for GBP/USD. A breach of this level will expose the 1.2700-1.2710 region, portraying a low of August 2 and a psychological mark. The additional downside filter to watch is 1.2615, a low of July 2. 

On the bright side, the first upside target will emerge at 1.2840, s high of August 2. Further north, the next hurdle is seen at 1.2887, the 100-period EMA. A break above this level will see a rally to 1.3038, the upper boundary of the Bollinger Band.  

GBP/USD 4-hour chart

Pound Sterling FAQs

What is the Pound Sterling?

The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, aka ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).

How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling?

The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.

How does economic data influence the value of the Pound?

Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.

How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound?

Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.