NZD/USD remains depressed below 0.6150, investors await key US CPI data this week

• NZD/USD weakens around 0.6120 on Tuesday amid the USD softness, down 0.11% on the day. 

• Fed’s Daly said the Fed should cut rates before policymakers are confident that inflation is headed towards 2%.

• The expectation the RBNZ will cut rates earlier than projected exerts some selling pressure on the Kiwi. 

The NZD/USD pair trades on a softer note near 0.6120 despite the weaker US Dollar (USD) during the early Asian trading hours on Tuesday. In the absence of top-tier economic data released from New Zealand on Tuesday, speeches by FOMC members could influence USD demand ahead of the key US economic data, which are due later this week. The revision of US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first quarter (Q1) is due on Thursday, and the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index will be published on Friday. 

The US Federal Reserve (Fed) officials emphasized that they need to see more progress on inflation before considering a rate cut. Financial markets are now pricing in a 65% odds of a Fed rate cut in September, up from 59.5% at the end of last week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. The cautious stance from the US central bank continues to support the Greenback in the near term against the Kiwi. 

San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly said on Monday that she does not believe the Fed should cut rates before policymakers are confident that inflation is headed towards 2%. Daly further stated that the labour market, albeit strong, might face rising unemployment if inflation remains persistent.

On the Kiwi front, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) forecast during its last policy meeting in May that the central bank wouldn’t start cutting its Official Cash Rate from 5.5% until the third quarter of next year as inflation remains elevated. Nonetheless, many analysts expect the beginning of the rate cut in early 2025. The speculation that the RBNZ will cut rates earlier than projected weighs on the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and creates a headwind for the NZD/USD pair. 

Data released on Monday showed that New Zealand’s Trade Balance arrived at NZD $-10.05B YoY in May from the previous reading of $-10.22B, according to Statistics New Zealand. Meanwhile, Exports rose to $7.16B in the same month versus $6.31B prior. Imports increased to $6.95B in May compared to $6.32B in April.

NZD/USD