EUR/USD Price Forecast: The first upside barrier emerges above 1.1200, eyes on the overbought condition

• EUR/USD drifts lower to near 1.1185 in Monday’s early European session. 
• Constructive bias of the pair prevails above the 100-day EMA, but the overbought RSI condition might cap its upside. 
• The immediate resistance level emerges at 1.1223; the key support level to watch is the 1.1100 round figure. 

The EUR/USD pair weakens near 1.1185 during the early European session on Monday. The modest recovery of the US Dollar (USD) drags the major pair lower. However, the downside of EUR/USD might be limited as US Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Powell gave a clear signal for a rate cut in September. 

According to the daily chart, EUR/USD keeps the bullish vibe unchanged as the major pair holds above the key 100-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA). The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands above the midline near 72.70, indicating the overbought RSI condition. This suggests that further consolidation cannot be ruled out before positioning for any near-term EUR/USD appreciation.

The first upside barrier for the major pair emerges at 1.1223, the upper boundary of the Bollinger Band. Further north, the next hurdle is seen at 1.1275 (high of July 18) en route to 1.1360 (high of December 16). The additional upside filter to watch is 1.1483 (high of January 14). 

On the downside, the crucial support level is located at the 1.1100 psychological level. A breach of this level will see a drop to 1.0940 (high of July 18), followed by 1.0873 (the 100-day EMA). 

EUR/USD daily chart