EUR/USD up almost a full percent this week ahead of Jackson Hole

• EUR/USD climbed four-tenths of one percent on Tuesday.
• Markets are broadly pivoting into a risk-on stance, pressuring the US Dollar.
• Investors will be craning their necks for signs of Fed rate cuts.

EUR/USD drove up 0.4% on Tuesday, breaching back above 1.1100 for the first time since last December, chalking in a fresh high for 2024. The pair has closed firmly in the green for three straight trading days, and is on pace to climb a full percent since Monday’s opening bids.

Pan-European Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) activity survey results are expected early Thursday, with the EU Manufacturing and Services PMIs for August both expected to hold steady, at 45.8 and 51.9, respectively. 

US Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) business activity survey results are slated for release on Thursday, as well as the kickoff of the annual Jackson Hole Symposium which is set to run through the weekend. Wednesday will deliver the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) latest Meeting Minutes, but market forces will broadly be looking ahead to Thursday’s outings for reasons to move.

US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI activity expectations are forecast to hold steady at 49.6 in August, while the Services PMI component is expected to tick down a full point to 54.0 from 55.0. The kickoff of the Jackson Hole Symposium is expected to draw plenty of investor attention on Thursday, but Friday’s appearance from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell can be expected to set the overall tone of market sentiment heading into next week.

EUR/USD price forecast

Fiber pushed into a fresh peak for the 2024 calendar year, tipping over 1.3050 as markets sell the Greenback short across the board, rather than for any particular reason to bid up the Euro. EUR/USD has closed in the green for all but one of the last seven straight trading days, and the pair is fully buried deep in bull country above the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.0835.

Despite the Fiber’s impressive recent run, a long-term consolidation range weighs heavily on technical charts, and a sharp upside swing could easily mean bidding momentum reverses course and sends price action back into familiar territory below 1.1000.

EUR/USD daily chart