Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD hovers near $29.50 due to caution ahead of Fed Minutes

• Silver price moves sideways as traders adopt a cautious stance before FOMC Minutes for July’s policy decision.

• The downside of the non-yielding Silver could be restrained as the Fed could reduce rates by 100 basis points in 2024.

• The safe-haven Silver may face challenges as the US "bridging proposal" could narrow the gaps between Israel and Hamas.

Silver price (XAG/USD) price consolidates around $29.50 per troy ounce during the European hours as traders assess the upcoming release of the FOMC Minutes on Wednesday. The Fed's Meeting Minutes for July’s policy decision could provide crucial insights into the Federal Reserve's (Fed) monetary policy direction. Furthermore, traders would likely shift their focus on the Fed Chair Jerome Powell's upcoming speech at Jackson Hole on Friday.

The downside risk for non-yielding Silver is expected to be limited, as the Federal Reserve is anticipated to deliver 100 basis points (bps) in rate cuts by the end of this year. However, there is division among market analysts on whether the Fed will implement a 25 or 50 bps cut at its September meeting.

CME FedWatch Tool suggests that the markets are now pricing in a nearly 67.5% odds of a 25 basis points (bps) Fed rate cut in its September meeting, down from 76% a day ago. The probability of a 50 basis points rate cut fell to 32.5% from 53.0% a week earlier.

Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Michelle Bowman expressed caution on Tuesday about making any policy changes, citing ongoing upside risks to inflation. Bowman warned that overreacting to individual data points could undermine the progress already achieved, according to Reuters.

The safe-haven appeal of Silver is expected to decrease as tensions in the Middle East ease. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken concluded a trip to the region aimed at facilitating a ceasefire in Gaza. According to Reuters, Blinken, along with mediators from Egypt and Qatar, has raised hopes for a US "bridging proposal" that could narrow the gaps between the conflicting parties in the 10-month-old war.

Silver FAQs

Why do people invest in Silver?

Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Which factors influence Silver prices?

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

How does industrial demand affect Silver prices?

Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.

How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves?

Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.