Gold price rebounds, snapping two-day losing streak amid mounting geopolitical tensions

• The Gold price recovers its recent losses in Monday’s Asian session. 

• Disappointing US employment reports and risk-off sentiment continue to support the yellow metal. 

• Investors await the release of US ISM Services PMI for July, which is due on Monday.  

Gold price (XAU/USD) gains traction on Monday on the softer Greenback. Markets are still digesting the FOMC’s dovish hold and softer US employment report. Meanwhile, the US Treasury bond yields and the US Dollar (USD) are likely to remain under pressure, which acts as a tailwind for the yellow metal. Additionally, the rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East might continue to underpin traditional safe-haven assets like Gold. 

Looking ahead, Gold traders will keep an eye on the US ISM Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) on Monday for fresh catalysts. The Services PMI is estimated to improve to 51.0 in July from 48.8 in June. In case of stronger-than-expected data, USD price might be lifted and cap the precious metal’s upside. 

Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price edges higher amid softer US jobs data and rising geopolitical risks

• US Secretary of State Tony Blinken told his counterparts from the G7 countries on Sunday that an attack by Iran and Hezbollah against Israel could start as early as Monday, three sources briefed on the call tell Axios.

• The US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) rose by 114K in July from the previous month of 179K (revised down from 206K), weaker than the expectation of 175K. 

• The US Unemployment Rate rose to the highest level since November 2021, coming in at 4.3% in July from 4.1% in June. The Average Hourly Earnings rose 0.2% month-over-month in the same reported period, below the market consensus of 0.3%.

• The marketplace is currently factoring in a nearly 74% chance for a 50 basis-point (bps) cut by the Fed at the September FOMC meeting.

• Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee said on Friday that the Fed should not overreact to any one month's numbers after the US NFP came in widely under forecasts, but noted that inflation and jobs data have both made significant progress in recent months.

Technical Analysis: Gold price keeps the bullish vibe in the longer term

Gold price trades stronger on the day. Nonetheless, the yellow metal maintains a constructive outlook on the daily timeframe as it holds above the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), with the bullish 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 58.0. 

The precious metal has traded within the ascending trend channel since mid-April. The first upside target emerges near $2,450 (high of May 20) en route to $2,483 (all-time high on July 17). Bullish candlesticks above this level could expose XAU/USD to potential bullish momentum all the way to the upper boundary of the trend channel of $2,515. 

On the downside, the initial support level for Gold price is located at $2,355 (low of July 26). Further south could take the price down to $2,335, the lower limit of the trend channel. Sustained trading below this level would pave the way to $2,319 (100-day EMA). 

Gold FAQs

Why do people invest in Gold?

Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Who buys the most Gold?

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

How is Gold correlated with other assets?

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

What does the price of Gold depend on?

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.