Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD holds below $2,350 on stronger US PMI data

• Gold price trades on a weaker note near $2,320 in Monday’s early Asian session. 
• The stronger US PMI data and Fed’s hawkish stance create headwinds for yellow metal. 
• Safe-haven flows amid the Middle East geopolitical tensions might cap the Gold price’s downside.  

Gold price (XAU/USD) edges lower to $2,320 after retreating from two-week highs around $2,368 during the early Asian session on Monday. The stronger-than-expected US Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) released on Friday weighs on the yellow metal. The final reading of the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index will be in the spotlight this week. 

The US economic data continues to show mixed signals in June. The recent S&P Global showed on Friday that the advanced US Composite PMI for June came in better than expected, rising to 54.6 in June from a final reading of 54.5 in May. The figure registered the highest level since April 2022. The Manufacturing PMI climbed to 51.7 in June from 51.3 in May, beating the estimation of 51.0. Finally, the Services PMI increased to 55.1 from 54.8 in May, above the consensus of 53.7.

The Fed officials pushed out the timing of the first interest rate cut this year. Fed Bank of Richmond President Tom Barkin said on Thursday that the central bank is well-positioned with the necessary firepower for the job, but will learn a lot more over the next several months. Meanwhile, Fed Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari noted that it will probably take a year or two to get inflation back to 2%. The stronger US economic data and the hawkish tone of US Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers continue to support the Greenback and drag the precious metal lower. It’s worth noting that a higher interest rate generally weighs on the Gold price as it increases the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.

On the other hand, the safe-haven flows on the back of geopolitical and economic uncertainty might lift the yellow metal in the near term. The UN Secretary-General said on Sunday that “full-scale war between Israel and Hezbollah would be "a  catastrophe," per the BBC. Several Palestinian children and women were killed and injured overnight Saturday in Israeli air strikes that targeted two homes in Gaza City, Anadolu news agency reported.

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