Mexican Peso stages recovery amid trade war tensions, improved risk appetite
- Mexican Peso recovers from a sharp decline due to US trade threats, showing market resilience.
- Despite improved risk sentiment, Trump's reaffirmed tariff plans on key industries maintain market tension.
- Traders eagerly await Mexican economic indicators, including the December Unemployment Rate and preliminary Q4 GDP.
The Mexican Peso (MXN) recovered some ground after Monday’s session, when it depreciated over 2% due to United States (US) President Donald Trump's trade threats to Colombia over its reluctance to accept Washington’s conditions on receiving planes carrying illegal immigrants. The USD/MXN trades at 20.54, down 0.49%.
Risk appetite improved during the day following Monday’s sell-off, due in part to Chinese company DeepSeek’s advance on AI and Trump’s trade rhetoric. Although the frenzy on AI has tempered, Trump doubled down on his trade policies, saying that he would apply tariffs to chips, pharmaceuticals, aluminum, steel and copper.
Mexico’s economic docket is absent on Tuesday, unlike the US. Durable Goods Orders for December disappointed investors, but excluding transportation rose, a sign that business spending would likely improve in 2025 Q1.
On the consumer side, the Conference Board (CB) revealed that Americans are less optimistic about the economy. The report revealed that labor market conditions fell for the first time in four months as people grew pessimistic about future employment prospects.
This week, Mexico’s economic docket will feature the Unemployment Rate for December, along with the release of preliminary Q4 2024 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures.
Daily digest market movers: Mexican Peso appreciates as Banxico shifts dovish
- Banco de Mexico (Banxico) presented its Monetary Program for 2025, in which the Central Bank hinted that the Governing Board is eyeing cuts to Mexico’s main reference rate of a greater magnitude than previously seen in 2024.
- Economists polled by Reuters project Mexico’s GDP to dip -0.2% QoQ from an expansion of 1.1%. On an annual basis, GDP is foreseen to edge lower from 1.6% to 1.2%.
- Citi revealed its Expectations Survey, in which Mexican private economists revised GDP figures for 2025 downward to 1%. Regarding inflation, economists foresee the Consumer Price Index (CPI) at 3.91%, while the core CPI is projected at 3.68%. Both figures are within Banxico’s 3% plus or minus 1%.
- The USD/MXN exchange rate would likely end in 2025 at around 20.95.
- Banxico is expected to lower rates by 25 basis points (bps) from 10.00% to 9.75%, though some analysts expect a 50-bps cut at the February 6 meeting.
- US Durable Goods Orders plummeted to -2.2 % MoM in December, missing the 0.8% increase expected by economists and worse than November’s -2% contraction.
- The Conference Board revealed that US Consumer Confidence dipped to 104.1, below the 105.6 foreseen by analysts. The report showed that all five components of the index deteriorated.
- Money market futures have priced in 54 bps of Fed rate cuts in 2025, according to CME FedWatch Tool data.
USD/MXN technical outlook: Mexican Peso climbs as USD/MXN extends its losses
The USD/MXN is retraining at the time of writing, although it hit a five-day peak of 20.77 as buyers eyed the year-to-date (YTD) high of 20.90. Momentum is slightly tilted to the downside, but the major trend is up, as shown by the Relative Strength Index (RSI).
However, bears are lurking as they pushed the exotic pair lower, but if they are hopeful of reaching lower prices, they need to clear the psychological 20.50 figure. In that outcome, the next support would be the 50-day Simple Moving Average at 20.38, followed by the 100-day SMA at 20.06. Once those levels are taken, the 20.00 figure is next.
Conversely, if USD/MXN climbs past the YTD peak of 20.90, the next resistance would be 21.00 ahead of the March 8, 2022, peak at 21.46. A breach of the latter will expose 22.00.
Mexican Peso FAQs
The Mexican Peso (MXN) is the most traded currency among its Latin American peers. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Mexican economy, the country’s central bank’s policy, the amount of foreign investment in the country and even the levels of remittances sent by Mexicans who live abroad, particularly in the United States. Geopolitical trends can also move MXN: for example, the process of nearshoring – or the decision by some firms to relocate manufacturing capacity and supply chains closer to their home countries – is also seen as a catalyst for the Mexican currency as the country is considered a key manufacturing hub in the American continent. Another catalyst for MXN is Oil prices as Mexico is a key exporter of the commodity.
The main objective of Mexico’s central bank, also known as Banxico, is to maintain inflation at low and stable levels (at or close to its target of 3%, the midpoint in a tolerance band of between 2% and 4%). To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, Banxico will attempt to tame it by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money, thus cooling demand and the overall economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Mexican Peso (MXN) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken MXN.
Macroeconomic data releases are key to assess the state of the economy and can have an impact on the Mexican Peso (MXN) valuation. A strong Mexican economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for MXN. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) to increase interest rates, particularly if this strength comes together with elevated inflation. However, if economic data is weak, MXN is likely to depreciate.
As an emerging-market currency, the Mexican Peso (MXN) tends to strive during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and thus are eager to engage with investments that carry a higher risk. Conversely, MXN tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
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