UPDATE 1-Goldman Sachs pushes back $3,000/troy ounce gold forecast to Q2 2026

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Jan 6 (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs pushed back its gold price forecast of $3,000 per troy ounce from December 2025 to the second quarter of 2026, citing expectations of fewer U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2025.

"Specifically, our U.S. economists now expect 75 basis point of cuts in 2025 (vs. 100bp previously) with a slightly higher terminal rate of 3.5-3.75%. This translates into a slower pace of ETF gold buying, hence delaying gold prices reaching our $3,000/toz target," the bank said in a note on Sunday.

Structurally higher central bank demand is the main driver for its 14% upside in the Q2, 2026 gold price forecast, the bank said.

Gold scaled a record high of $2,790.15 an ounce in October last year, gaining around 27% in its biggest yearly rise since 2010 on the back of the Fed's rate easing and escalated tensions around the globe. GOL/

After delivering three consecutive interest rate cuts in 2024, the U.S. central bank in December said it projects only two reductions in 2025 due to stubbornly high inflation.

Gold prices have fallen more than 5% since hitting record highs and are trading around $2,630 an ounce as of 0715 GMT on Monday.

The investment bank said it expects gold to reach $2,910 per troy ounce by end-2025.

"Opposing forces—lower speculative demand and structurally higher central bank buying—have effectively offset each other, keeping gold prices range-bound over the past few months," the bank said, adding that ETF demand has also grown less than expected following the reduction in uncertainty.

The higher-for-longer Fed rate is the main downside risk to their $3,000 forecast, Goldman said, adding that if the Fed would not cut further, the gold price would rise to only $2,910 by May next year.

"We also see some upside risk to our gold price forecast and hedging value in the two main downside risks scenarios to the US economy, namely tariff escalation and renewed market concerns about fiscal sustainability."

(Reporting by Anushree Mukherjee and Swati Verma in Bengaluru; Editing by Jacqueline Wong and Michael Perry)

((anushree.ashishMukherjee@thomsonreuters.com;))