Auto File - Geely aims high

Jan 7 - By Nick Carey, European Autos Correspondent

Greetings from London!

Happy New Year from the Reuters Auto File! 2025 looks set to be another hectic year for the industry. From Trump 2.0 to China’s automakers flexing their muscles, it promises a wild ride.

The year has not started well for Tesla, which reported its first-ever fall in yearly deliveries for 2024. Also, a U.S. regulator has opened a probe into 2.6 million Teslas over crashes allegedly involving the carmaker’s "Actually Smart Summon" feature.

Once Trump takes office, CEO Elon Musk may be able to get regulators off his back. But Tesla’s sales decline came despite lucrative year-end incentives, including interest-free financing and free fast-charging, to boost interest in its aging lineup

Chinese rivals meanwhile continue to grow and roll out newer and better EVs, so when not wading into Germany’s election or making friends with then falling out with British populist Nigel Farage, Musk needs to figure out how to get Tesla back on track, and fast.

Which brings us to today’s Auto File…

• Geely’s big goals

• Panasonic’s China-free plans

• Norway goes nearly all-electric

Geely eyes major growth

China’s Geely says it plans to sell more than 5 million cars globally in 2027, a jump of 79% from the 2.79 million vehicles it sold in 2023 that reflects the diverging fortunes of major western automakers and the rise of new Chinese rivals.

State-owned Chery says its sales in 2024 jumped 38.4% to 2.6 million vehicles and it expects to sell more than 3 million cars this year. And BYD said last month it was on track to sell more than 4 million cars in 2024 and pass both Ford and Honda in sales.

Based on global 2023 sales, 5 million units would have made Geely the world’s No. 6 automaker. But given declines for many legacy companies, if it meets its goal then it should be comfortably among the top five.

To get there, Geely says it will further consolidate its sprawling passenger car brands into two units -- Geely Auto and Zeekr Technology - to target the mass market and premium segments, respectively.

Meanwhile, at home Chinese EV makers including Nio and Li Auto have followed market leaders Tesla and BYD in extending consumer discounts to the start of 2025, as a price war in the world's largest auto market has now hit its third year.

Large sellers like BYD, Geely and Chery will survive that battle, but many of China’s smaller EV companies will likely get squeezed out.

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• Investors cheer hopes of lighter Trump car tariffs

• Manhattan’s $9 congestion charge kicks in

Panasonic wants China-free U.S. batteries

Tesla supplier Panasonic Energy will eliminate its supply-chain dependence on China for U.S. made EV batteries as the company prepares for a fresh round of tariffs once Donald Trump takes office.

As a senior Panasonic executive told my Reuters colleagues Abhirup Roy and Kantaro Komiya in Las Vegas at the CES trade show, that shift away from relying on China is the company’s "No.1 objective". You can read about it here.

This highlights how Trump's pledge to raise tariffs on imported Chinese goods has forced companies around the world once again to reassess their supply chains after tariffs on Chinese EVs under Trump and then more under Joe Biden.

Trump has vowed to impose tariffs of 10% on global imports into the U.S., along with a 60% tariff on Chinese goods.

The first thing Panasonic’s U.S. business must do regarding Trump's tariff plans is "not to have the supply chain dedicated from China," Allan Swan, President of Panasonic Energy of North America, told Reuters.

Swan said Panasonic is not only signing up U.S. suppliers but also helping some of its Japanese and Korean suppliers set up shop in the United States and tapping those that already plan U.S. operations.

EVs dominate in Norway

Nearly nine out of 10 cars sold in Norway in 2024 were EVs which, as my colleague Nerijus Adomaitis reports here, puts the country within reach of having all-electric new car sales by 2025.

With its sovereign wealth fund, Norway has been able to fund the transition to electric with generous purchase and tax subsidies, accompanied by investments in charging infrastructure and penalties for fossil-fuel cars that other European governments have only been able to dream of.

Still, even with new car sales that are nearly all fully electric, EVs still only account for under 29% of cars on the roads in Norway and it will take many years to phase them out.

As a warning of what may be coming for Europe’s automakers, in just five years Chinese-made EVs have surged to nearly 10% of all new EVs sold in Norway.

Less-bad times for Rivian, Lucid

U.S. EV makers Rivian and Lucid both reported better-than-expected fourth-quarter deliveries that give the two companies a little breathing room after a couple of years of bad news for Tesla wannabes that has seen several smaller rivals go bust.

Rivian said its production is no longer constrained by a component shortage, a hopeful sign for the EV maker as it seeks to turn its first profit.

Saudi Arabia-backed Lucid managed to boost deliveries by lowering prices and offering cheaper financing to drive demand, which will likely push profitability further out.

Despite the improvement, both EV makers are still minnows. Rivian delivered 14,183 vehicles in the fourth quarter and Lucid handed over 3,099.

Tesla handed over almost 500,000 vehicles during the quarter.

Demand for EVs could take a fresh hit as Trump is expected to reverse many of the Biden administration's EV-friendly policies and incentives, so Rivian and Lucid still face a steep, bumpy road to mass production.

Fast Laps

Stellantis, Toyota, Ford, Mazda and Subaru plan to pool CO2 emissions with Tesla to comply with the European Union’s 2025 targets.

The U.S. Defense Department has added Chinese tech giant Tencent and battery maker CATL to a list of companies it says work with China's military.

A group representing self-driving car companies has called on the U.S. government to help speed the deployment of autonomous vehicles and remove barriers to adoption.

Hyundai and sister company Kia want to grow their combined global sales by 2% to 7.39 million vehicles in 2025, after posting lower 2024 sales and missing their targets.

Guangzhou-based Pony.ai Inc wants to launch robotaxi services in Hong Kong, joining Baidu in a race to provide services in the city.

Beijing has passed new regulations to encourage autonomous driving technology in the city, with authorities planning to eventually allow driverless public buses and taxis.

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(Editing by Alexander Smith)