EUR/USD finds thin gains and a seven-month peak on Wednesday

EUR/USD

FXStreetAug 15, 2024 12:38 AM

EUR/USD rose to a fresh seven-month high on Wednesday before falling back.
EU GDP growth landed exactly where markets expected, and US CPI inflation cooled.
US Retail Sales figures still in the barrel for Thursday.

EUR/USD caught a brief rally into a fresh seven-month peak bid before easing back toward the 1.1000 handle on Wednesday. Fiber caught a run over 1.1000 and into the 1.1050 level after pan-EU Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth figure printed exactly as expected. Meanwhile, EU Industrial Production remains crimped and US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation figures met forecasts but still disappointed markets.

Forex Today: Soft or hard landing? Upcoming US data will have a say

Coming up on Thursday, US Retail Sales in July are expected to rebound to 0.3% after the previous month’s 0.0% flat hold. A fresh print of the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index for August is also on the cards for later in the week, forecast to improve to 66.9 from 66.4.

Headline US CPI inflation printed at 2.9% YoY in July, slightly below the forecast hold at 3.0%, with core CPI inflation ticking down to 3.2% on an annualized basis from the previous 3.0% as markets had expected. Monthly CPI figures, both headline and core, rose 0.2% MoM in July, but even this figure was a round-up print from the data rates of 0.15% and 0.17% for headline and core CPI, respectively.

Despite easing consumer-level inflation figures, investors had been hoping for prints further below forecasts after this week’s US Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation showed steeper-than-expected drops in producer-level price pressures. However, easing price pressures don’t appear to be passing onto consumers on a one-to-one basis. According to the CME’s FedWatch Tool, rate markets are now pricing in only 40% odds of a double-cut from the Federal Reserve (Fed) on September 18, down from 50% earlier this week and 70% the week previous.

EUR/USD price forecast

EUR/USD chalked in a third straight gainer on Wednesday, mounting back over the 1.1000 handle and extending a near-term bullish tilt into a fresh seven-month peak near 1.1050. Bullish EUR/USD moves are threatening to run out of gas as the pair overextended too quickly from a technical rejection off of the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.0829.

EUR/USD daily chart

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