AUD/JPY extends upside to near 97.00 as labor report strengthens hawkish RBA mood

• AUD/JPY gains ground following the release of employment data on Thursday.
• Fed Chair Powell’s remarks tempered optimism, preventing stronger risk-sensitive currencies like AUD.
• The upside of the currency cross could be limited as the JPY receives support from the hawkish BoJ.

AUD/JPY continues its winning for the fourth successive day, trading around 97.10 during the early European hours. The Australian Dollar (AUD) received support following the labor market report released on Thursday.

Australian Employment Change rose to 47.5K in August, down from 58.2K in July but significantly above the consensus forecast of 25.0K. The Unemployment Rate held steady at 4.2% in August, consistent with both expectations and the previous month’s figure, according to data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).

The US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) 50 basis point interest rate cut on Wednesday may have improved market confidence and supported risk-sensitive currencies like the Australian Dollar. However, comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell tempered optimism, preventing a stronger risk-on sentiment in the markets.

Fed’s Chair Powell stated in the post-meeting press conference, that the Fed is not in a hurry to ease policy and emphasized that half-percentage point rate cuts are not the "new pace." Additionally, Fed policymakers raised their long-term projection for the federal funds rate from 2.8% to 2.9%.

The upside of the AUD/JPY cross could be limited as the Japanese Yen (JPY) receives support from the hawkish sentiment surrounding the Bank of Japan (BoJ). Traders are anticipating the BoJ's policy decision, with expectations that rates will remain unchanged while leaving room for potential future rate hikes.

Additionally, Japan’s National Consumer Price Index (CPI) data will be closely monitored, as the inflation report could offer new insights into the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) future interest rate trajectory.

Interest rates FAQs

What are interest rates?

Interest rates are charged by financial institutions on loans to borrowers and are paid as interest to savers and depositors. They are influenced by base lending rates, which are set by central banks in response to changes in the economy. Central banks normally have a mandate to ensure price stability, which in most cases means targeting a core inflation rate of around 2%. If inflation falls below target the central bank may cut base lending rates, with a view to stimulating lending and boosting the economy. If inflation rises substantially above 2% it normally results in the central bank raising base lending rates in an attempt to lower inflation.

How do interest rates impact currencies?

Higher interest rates generally help strengthen a country’s currency as they make it a more attractive place for global investors to park their money.

How do interest rates influence the price of Gold?

Higher interest rates overall weigh on the price of Gold because they increase the opportunity cost of holding Gold instead of investing in an interest-bearing asset or placing cash in the bank. If interest rates are high that usually pushes up the price of the US Dollar (USD), and since Gold is priced in Dollars, this has the effect of lowering the price of Gold.

What is the Fed Funds rate?

The Fed funds rate is the overnight rate at which US banks lend to each other. It is the oft-quoted headline rate set by the Federal Reserve at its FOMC meetings. It is set as a range, for example 4.75%-5.00%, though the upper limit (in that case 5.00%) is the quoted figure. Market expectations for future Fed funds rate are tracked by the CME FedWatch tool, which shapes how many financial markets behave in anticipation of future Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions.