The Week Ahead: US September CPI and PPI Set for Release, Wall Street Major Bank Earnings Season Officially Kicks Off, TSMC Earnings in Focus

US September CPI Ahead as Fed October Policy Expectations Face Key Test

On Wednesday (October 14), the US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the September Consumer Price Index (CPI) at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time.

In August, US CPI rose 0.4% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year, while core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 2.4% year-over-year. Energy prices rose 2.1% month-over-month, with gasoline prices up 3.9%, serving as a key driver behind the rebound in headline inflation.

Markets currently expect headline CPI growth in September to accelerate further to around 3.7% year-over-year, with core CPI rising about 2.5% year-over-year.

The Fed raised interest rates by 25 basis points in September, elevating the federal funds rate target range to 3.75%-4.00%. However, following the recent slowdown in employment and select inflation metrics, markets are leaning toward a Fed rate pause at its late-October meeting, with the next policy tightening potentially postponed to December.

Therefore, the key focus of this CPI report lies not only in headline year-over-year figures, but also in core services, shelter, and goods prices. If both headline and core CPI beat expectations, markets may re-raise the probability of a rate hike in October or December, lending support to US Treasury yields and the US dollar, while high-valuation tech stocks face greater valuation pressure.

If core CPI comes in significantly below expectations, the combination of slowing job growth and cooling inflation could further reinforce expectations for the Fed to stand pat in October.

TSMC Third-Quarter Earnings Report Arrives

On Thursday (October 15), TSMC will release its full third-quarter 2026 financial report and hold an earnings conference call.

In fact, third-quarter revenue figures have already been released ahead of time. TSMC's revenue from July to September reached approximately NT$1.49 trillion (about $46.7 billion), representing a year-over-year increase of roughly 50% to hit a record high, beating market consensus of about NT$1.46 trillion and surpassing the company's previous guidance range of $44.6 billion to $45.8 billion.

Therefore, market focus for next week's financial report will shift more toward profitability and forward guidance. The company previously projected third-quarter gross margin of 65%-67% and operating margin of 56%-58%. Investors will focus closely on advanced process capacity utilization, AI accelerator demand, 2nm mass production progress, and capital expenditures.

Markets expect TSMC's third-quarter net profit to continue achieving rapid growth. For US equities, the importance of TSMC's earnings report far transcends that of a single company. AI-related firms remain a key driver of S&P 500 earnings growth, and TSMC occupies the core manufacturing link in the AI chip supply chain. Consequently, the company's statements on future AI chip orders and capital expenditures will directly impact market sentiment regarding the momentum of the entire AI supply chain.

If management continues to raise AI demand expectations and offers a strong outlook for advanced processes and capital expenditures, it could further reinforce market optimism for US AI chip and semiconductor equipment stocks; conversely, if gross margin, order, or capex guidance turns cautious, markets may reassess the growth trajectory of the current AI capital expenditure cycle.

September PPI and Retail Sales to be Released on Same Day

On Thursday (October 15), the US will experience the most data-heavy day of the week.

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the September PPI at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time. In August, final demand PPI rose 0.4% month-over-month and 5.4% year-over-year, with goods prices rising 1.1% month-over-month, indicating that business-side cost pressures remain high.

With PPI released the day after CPI, markets will further evaluate whether corporate raw material, transportation, and service costs continue to pass through to consumers.

At the same time, the US will release September retail sales.

Retail sales will serve as a key indicator for assessing the resilience of US consumer spending. If CPI and PPI remain elevated while retail sales stay strong, markets may form a judgment of "high inflation and robust demand," strengthening the case for the Fed to maintain tight monetary policy.

If retail sales weaken significantly while inflation cools simultaneously, market focus may shift further to the impact of high interest rates on the US economy and household purchasing power.

Fed Beige Book Release Ahead: Focus on Real Impact of High Interest Rates on US Economy

At 2:00 p.m. on Wednesday, the Fed will release its latest Beige Book on economic conditions, offering updated regional economic information for the October 27-28 FOMC meeting.

Markets will focus closely on business feedback across districts concerning consumption, hiring, wages, capital expenditures, and prices.

Minutes from the September FOMC meeting showed that although the Fed unanimously agreed to raise rates by 25 basis points, division remained over whether to hike further, with a majority of members believing policy may need to be tightened again within the year.

If the Beige Book continues to show rising corporate costs, stable consumer demand, and a resilient labor market, it may support more hawkish officials in advocating for further rate hikes; if consumption, hiring, and manufacturing activity cool noticeably, the rationale for pausing rate hikes in October will further build.

Wall Street Bank Earnings Season Officially Underway

On Tuesday (October 13), JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will report third-quarter results, officially kicking off the major bank earnings season.

Markets will focus heavily on net interest income, loan growth, deposit costs, credit losses, and investment banking and trading operations.

Markets expect profits at select major banks to maintain solid growth in the third quarter, largely supported by capital markets and trading activities. However, the recent sharp rise in long-term US Treasury yields has put notable pressure on bank stocks, signaling that markets remain cautious about funding costs and credit risks in a high-interest-rate environment.

High interest rates have a dual impact on bank profitability. On one hand, higher asset yields may support net interest income; on the other hand, deposit costs, funding costs, and credit pressures could rise simultaneously.

Therefore, in next week's bank earnings reports, management commentary on loan demand, credit quality, and interest rate trends may be far more critical than single-quarter profit figures.

Monday (October 12)

Key Events: Columbus Day

Monday is the Columbus Day federal holiday in the U.S. While the U.S. stock market will open for regular trading, federal government operations and parts of the bond market will be affected by the holiday.

With light economic data on the day, market focus may shift early to the major bank earnings season kicking off on Tuesday and Wednesday's CPI report.

Tuesday (October 13)

Key Events: JPMorgan Earnings, Goldman Sachs Earnings, Citigroup Earnings

The U.S. stock market's third-quarter earnings season officially enters its peak period.

JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will report earnings in concentration, with the market focusing on net interest income, credit quality, trading, and investment banking.

Johnson & Johnson and UnitedHealth will also report earnings on the same day, making financials and healthcare the two primary earnings themes for U.S. stocks on Tuesday.

Wednesday (October 14)

Key Events: U.S. September CPI, Fed Beige Book

The U.S. will release the September CPI at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time. The market expects headline CPI to rise about 3.7% year-over-year, with core CPI expected to increase about 2.5% year-over-year.

At 2:00 p.m., the Federal Reserve will release the Beige Book, providing the latest reference on regional economic conditions ahead of the late-October FOMC meeting.

On the corporate front, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, and BlackRock will release their third-quarter earnings.

Thursday (October 15)

Key Events: TSMC Earnings, U.S. September PPI, September Retail Sales

Thursday will be one of the busiest trading days of the coming week.

TSMC will report its full third-quarter results. As the company has already reported record quarterly revenue ahead of time, market focus will center on net profit, gross margin, AI demand, advanced processes, and future capital expenditure guidance.

At 8:30 a.m., the U.S. will simultaneously release September PPI, retail sales, and weekly initial jobless claims.

The New York Fed will also release the October Empire State Manufacturing Index, while the Philadelphia Fed will simultaneously release the October Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey.

On the corporate front, Charles Schwab will report its third-quarter earnings.

Friday (October 16)

Key Events: U.S. September Industrial Production, September Import/Export Prices

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the September import and export price indexes at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time.

The Federal Reserve will release September industrial production and capacity utilization at 9:15 a.m.

Industrial production helps the market gauge activity across U.S. manufacturing, mining, and utilities, while capacity utilization serves as a key metric for observing resource utilization and potential price pressures.

This content was translated using AI and reviewed for clarity. It is for informational purposes only.