- EUR/GBP falls after the release of higher-than-expected UK Consumer Price Index data.
- The UK CPI inflation climbed to 2.3% YoY in October, the highest in six months, up from 1.7% in September.
- German Producer Price Index fell by 1.1% YoY in October, marking the 16th consecutive period of producer deflation.
EUR/GBP loses ground to near 0.8330 during the early European hours. The Pound Sterling (GBP) appreciates following the stronger Consumer Price Index (CPI) data from the United Kingdom (UK) released on Wednesday.
The UK CPI inflation climbed to 2.3% year-over-year in October, the highest in six months, up from 1.7% in September and surpassing forecasts of 2.2%. On a monthly basis, the CPI increased by 0.6% after remaining unchanged in September. Meanwhile, the annual Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose to 3.3% during the same period, exceeding market expectations of 3.1%. Additionally, the Retail Price Index increased by 3.4% year-over-year, compared to 2.7% in September.
In Germany, the Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 1.1% year-on-year in October, following a 1.4% decline the previous month, in line with market expectations. This marks the 16th consecutive period of producer deflation. On a monthly basis, producer prices rose by 0.2%, rebounding from a 0.5% drop in September, also matching market estimates.
Since June, the ECB has reduced rates three times as inflation approaches its 2% target, although growth forecasts have been downgraded twice. Markets largely anticipate a 25-basis-point rate cut next month, with a smaller chance of a more significant reduction.
On Wednesday, ECB President Christine Lagarde is set to deliver the opening remarks at the ECB’s Conference on Financial Stability and Macroprudential Policy in Frankfurt. Investors will also be closely watching the preliminary Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) figures from the Eurozone and Germany, which are scheduled for release on Friday.
Economic Indicator
Consumer Price Index (YoY)
The United Kingdom (UK) Consumer Price Index (CPI), released by the Office for National Statistics on a monthly basis, is a measure of consumer price inflation – the rate at which the prices of goods and services bought by households rise or fall – produced to international standards. It is the inflation measure used in the government’s target. The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to a year earlier. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Pound Sterling (GBP), while a low reading is seen as bearish.
Read more.Last release: Wed Nov 20, 2024 07:00
Frequency: Monthly
Actual: 2.3%
Consensus: 2.2%
Previous: 1.7%
Source: Office for National Statistics
The Bank of England is tasked with keeping inflation, as measured by the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) at around 2%, giving the monthly release its importance. An increase in inflation implies a quicker and sooner increase of interest rates or the reduction of bond-buying by the BOE, which means squeezing the supply of pounds. Conversely, a drop in the pace of price rises indicates looser monetary policy. A higher-than-expected result tends to be GBP bullish.