General Motors (GM) Earnings Tomorrow — 20% Average Beat Rate, $3.13 EPS Expected

The first quarter of 2026 set a formidable standard. GM's adjusted EPS of $3.70 eclipsed the $2.78 expectation by 33%. Simultaneously, EBIT adjusted for one-time items totaled $4.25 billion, a 21.9% year-over-year increase, while the adjusted operating margin in North America widened to 10.1%. As the tariff scenario improved during the first quarter, following a Supreme Court ruling invalidating duties imposed pursuant to the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, GM revised its adjusted EBIT forecast for the full year upwards to $13.5-$15.5 billion from the previous $13.0-$15.0 billion guidance, and trimmed its estimated gross tariff spend to $2.5-$3.5 billion from a previous $3.0-$4.0 billion outlook. The anticipated Q2 figures of EPS ranging from $3.11 to $3.13 and revenue between $45.96 billion and $47.03 billion appear less ambitious when compared to Q2 2025, where adjusted EPS stood at $2.53.

The factors potentially driving results beyond consensus are identical to those that have propelled GM's recent outperformance: the maintenance of premium pricing power over trucks and SUVs and the rapid expansion of the digital platform and services revenue. In Q1, digital revenues booked totalled over $750 million, up more than 20% year over year; deferred revenues stood at $5.8 billion, an increase of over 50%. Company leadership projects total digital revenue of $3.1 billion for all of 2026 and expects deferred revenues to approach $7.5 billion by year-end, while the customer base increases to 13 million users. Subscription services like OnStar and Super Cruise deliver mostly all-marginal revenue, so deferred revenues are a more important indicator of future profit than car sales volumes in any single quarter.

GM moved 714,896 cars in the U.S. in Q2, an approximate 4.2% decrease from Q2 2025. The drop was caused by a lower EV footprint, certain discontinued products and modest inventory issues. In spite of the volume drop, GM remains the #1 U.S. auto manufacturer by unit sales in Q2. GMC Sierra recorded the largest Q2 sales of ever. Chevrolet's Trailblazer and Traverse climbed 28% and 20% respectively while Cadillac posted its best-ever EV sales, driven by the OPTIQ and VISTIQ and Buick's Envista had its best quarter on record. While the total volume is declining, the model-level improvement is a structural trend: GM is improving its product mix by increasing the proportion of higher margin vehicles sold even as total volume is declining.

EV profitability is the challenge that partially counteracted this better mix. GM shifted approximately 56,679 EVs in H1 2026, down roughly a third from H1 2025, as the U.S. federal purchase incentive lapsed in September 2025. 

During the Q2 conference call, the firm will probably disclose whether GM has enhanced EV gross margins since Q1, which costs trajectory it is targeting for batteries, and whether the full year EV volume estimate should be lowered. China equity earnings were $165 million in Q1, representing the sixth consecutive quarter of profitable operations after major cost restructuring. With China accounting for such a massive drag on GM in 2024 and early 2025, the market will be paying very close attention to any updates that are released on the company's China trajectory.

Looking at the 4H timeframe, the 76.28 price of GM is stuck between a downward trendline from the early-mid June top at and the 74.62 level. The current 50-period EMA is at $77.22 and the 100-period EMA is at $78.34. Both the RSI around 43 is neutral to slightly negative. GM must close above 77.22 EMA to get the resistance to break and the stock to hit 77.96, 80.52 and 83.26. If it stays below the trendline and close below 74.62, the gap below 74.62 to the downside could open up to 72.77 and 70.49. 

General Motors (GM) Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

The print at 6:30 AM ET tomorrow is what is needed as the spark for a reaction to the market. Should we receive an above-consensus print followed by raised full year guidance, it could gap over the cluster of EMAs. If it is below consensus, a close below 74.62 will likely occur.

• Earnings: Tuesday July 21, 6:30 AM ET. Conference call 8:30 AM ET
• Consensus: EPS $3.11-$3.13 (+22-23% YoY from $2.53). Revenue $45.96B-$47.03B
• Beat record: 4 consecutive earnings beats. Average EPS surprise: 20.25%
• Digital revenue: $750M+ Q1 recognised (+20% YoY). FY2026 target: $3.1B recognised, $7.5B deferred
• Bull trigger: Confirmed close above $77.22 (50-period EMA). Targets $77.96, $80.52, $83.26
• Bear scenario: Close below $74.62 opens $72.77 and $70.49

Consensus is for GM to report Q2 2026 EPS of $3.11 to $3.13, an increase of 22% to 23% from $2.53 in Q2 2025, on revenue of $45.96 billion to $47.03 billion. GM has exceeded analyst EPS expectations in each of the last four quarters, with an average beat of 20.25%. GM topped Q1 estimates by 33%, as it reported an EPS of $3.70 versus the $2.78 consensus. This sets a strong sequential baseline for the upcoming release. GM announces Q2 2026 results at 6:30 AM ET on Tuesday, July 21, prior to the opening bell, followed by a conference call at 8:30 AM ET.

The US Supreme Court struck down some tariffs that were put into place through the authority of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, eliminating one of the headwinds GM has been managing. In response, GM raised its full year 2026 adjusted earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) target from $13 billion to $15 billion to $13.5 billion to $15.5 billion. It also revised the anticipated costs for tariffs from $3 billion to $4 billion, down to $2.5 billion to $3.5 billion. The automaker also expects a roughly $500 million credit to be returned from the tariffs it has already paid, though it hasn't received those funds yet. Other specific sector tariffs remain on vehicles, steel, aluminium, and parts. Tariffs still exist and pose a drag on earnings. This tariff impact remains meaningful, but should be easier to digest going forward.

GM releases Q2 2026 earnings tomorrow (Tuesday, July 21) at 6:30 AM ET. Analyst consensus calls for EPS of $3.11 to $3.13 and total revenue of $45.96 billion to $47.03 billion. With four consecutive quarterly beats in a row, GM is averaging a positive surprise of 20.25% per quarter. The consensus case is clearly set for another beat. Key drivers of an even more powerful stock market response include a better than 10% North American automotive gross margin, which would validate the improvement seen in Q1 despite lower volume, as well as any indication that the EV segment is improving its margin trajectory or the digital revenues are on track to hit the $3.1 billion annual target. GM stock is $76.28 and is trading underneath the short term and long term EMAs. A strong report could help the shares gap up higher than $77.22 and climb as high as $80. Conversely, any kind of miss could test $74.62.