Intel Stock Has Surged 74% in 2026 and Earnings Land April 23 — Is INTC Still a Buy at $68?

Things kicked off with Q4 2025 results on January 22 and they exceeded expectations: Intel's non-GAAP EPS of $0.15 came in a whisker above the predicted $0.09, while sales came out higher than forecast at $13.7 billion. But the icing on the cake was management upping its Xeon server revenue guidance by a whooping 36% because of demand from the AI world - from there on in, a bunch of catalysts started piling in. 

Intel's major hyperscaler partnership announcements with Tesla and Google really made a statement, the launch of the Core series 3 AI PC targeting the small business and education market was a biggie, and when CEO Lip-Bu Tan let it slip that the 18A foundry node is now opening its doors to external customers, that was the kind of news that gets people all excited. 

Northland went all-in at $92 Outperform, the US added a trade war boost with its semiconductor tariff exemptions, and the stock clocked up its best nine-day winning streak on record - briefly touching $70.33 on April 17.

Despite the rally, the fundamental picture still has a lot of work to do. Next year's EPS is looking all the way up at $1.07, which puts the stock at a pretty eye-watering 128 times forward earnings - and if you factor in 2027 estimates at $68 the P/E jumps up to 64 times that. Intel is still running at a full-blown $2.5 billion operating loss on the foundry front - Q4 2025. 

Price is taking a run at the Fibonacci 2.0 extension at $68.72 after getting blasted upward from the $40 base. RSI is already screaming "overbought" at a reading of 78 , the candles are showing smaller bodies now that the initial surge has given way to a pullback, and the stock is well and truly stretched above its 50-day moving average. 

Intel (INTC) Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

The support levels look pretty clear at $63.36 (the magic number where 1.618 Fib comes into play), and then $58.51 (where the 1.272 Fib is waiting patiently). Get a daily close above $70.33 after earnings, though, and you've got a shot at $72.53 ( the 2.272 Fib) and - more likely still - the all-time high at $74.88

Trade Setup 

Short / fade entry: Below $68.50 with RSI rolling over from overbought, targeting a post-earnings pullback

Target 1: $63.36 - Fib 1.618 support and first meaningful pullback zone

Target 2: $58.51 - Fib 1.272 and prior consolidation base

Breakout entry: Daily close above $70.33 (April high) on strong volume post-earnings

Breakout targets: $72.53 - Fib 2.272 · $74.53,  Fib 2.414 · $74.88 all-time high

Stop loss (short): Daily close above $70.33, momentum resuming, exit the fade

Consensus is calling for a pretty meager $12.3 to $12.4 billion in Q1 revenue, and just a nickel in non-GAAP earnings per share. This is a pretty low bar, given the usual Q1 slowdown. Intel actually beat expectations in 3 out of the last 4 quarters - most recently in a big way in Q4. But beating expectations won't do much to drive the stock price from here. Three things will really matter: how Intel's forward Xeon and AI server business is shaping up, whether the company can name an external customer for their new 18A foundry, and the pace at which they're losing money in their foundry operation. A positive surprise on any one of these fronts could send INTC up to the $72 to $74 range. But if Intel is vague or ominous about all three, it's going to be downhill fast from here - given how much optimism is already priced into the stock. The conference call starts at 5:00 PM ET on April 23.

INTC has surged 74% year-to-date, driven by a bunch of different factors all coming together at once. There was that strong Q4 2025 earnings beat, where Intel came in at $0.15 in non-GAAP EPS instead of the expected $0.09. Then there was the fact that their Xeon server revenue guidance went up by 36% - driven by demand from the AI infrastructure crowd. We also got news of some big hyperscaler partnerships with Tesla and Google, and the launch of their new Core Series 3 AI PCs. On top of that, there's been growing excitement around the company's 18A foundry opening up to external customers - and of course the tariffs on semiconductors were lifted, which helped. Northland came out with a $92 Outperform rating, and the result was Intel's biggest nine-day run ever - with the stock moving from multi-year lows up to near $70, twenty six year highs.

Intel's Q1 2026 earnings are due out after the market closes on Thursday April 23rd, with a conference call at 5:00 PM ET. Consensus is that revenue will be around $12.3 to $12.4 billion, and non-GAAP earnings per share will be about $0.01. The bar is pretty low here, given how dead Q1 usually is - but with the stock priced at $68 on $0.53 in projected full-year earnings, the market is really going to be looking for some strong forward guidance - especially on AI server demand, the 18A foundry, and how Intel is really doing financially. The options are pricing in an 11 to 12% swing in either direction.

The analyst consensus price target for INTC is right now at $51 - with 38 different analysts calling the shots. That implies a pretty hefty 25% drop from where we're at now, at $68.50. The range is pretty wide - Northland is calling for a $92 Outperform target, while some bears are saying to expect the stock to tank all the way to $20 or $30. From a technical standpoint, if the stock holds above $63.36, it's still got a chance to go up - with upside targets at $72.53 and $74.88 (which is the all-time high). But if it breaks through $63 after earnings, get ready for a pullback down to $58.51 before we can think about the next leg up.